Why retailers still see Black Friday as the high point of the holiday shopping season

NEW YORK– After weeks of increasingly inviting discounts, retailers in the United States and several other countries are preparing for prime time: Black Fridaythe bargain bonus that still reigns as the unofficial kick-off to the Christmas shopping season, even if it has lost some of its luster.

Department stores, shopping centers and merchants – large and small – see the next day Thanksgiving as a way to energize shoppers and to get them into physical stores at a time when many gift seekers are content with browsing online. There are plenty of traditionalists who argue that Black Friday remains the biggest day of the year for shoppers.

“I’m excited about it,” Texas resident Emily Phillips said during a visit to the Galleria Dallas last week. “I save all the things I want throughout the year and usually try to get them around Black Friday. I prefer to shop in person, because then I can try things on. It’s a better experience.”

In the US, analysts anticipate a solid holiday shopping season, although perhaps not as robust as that that of last yearwhere many consumers are under financial pressure and are nevertheless cautious with their discretionary spending the easing of inflation.

Retailers will be under even more pressure to convince shoppers buy early and in bulk because there are five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year.

Mall of America, in Bloomington, Minnesota, is giving the first 200 people in line at the center’s north entrance a $25 gift card. Target is offering an exclusive book dedicated to Taylor Swift Eras tour and a bonus edition of hers “The Department of Martyred Poets: The Anthology” album which will only be available in stores on Black Friday, before customers can buy it online from Saturday.

Best buy has introduced an extended version of the doorbuster, the limited-time daily discounts that were all the rage — and sometimes the spark for actual brawls — for years before the coronavirus pandemic. The nation’s largest consumer electronics retailer has published doorbuster deals every Friday through its app, online and in stores since Nov. 8 and plans to continue the weekly promotion through Dec. 20.

“(Stores) are very curious about a good performance on Black Friday,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor at market research firm Circana. “They realize they won’t achieve major online growth because the pie has become so competitive. They have to find a way to win in stores.”

Impulse purchases and self-gifting are a potential area for big sales growth, and without these purchases, sales won’t grow, Cohen says. Research by Circana shows that shoppers are three times more likely to buy impulsively in a physical store than online.

Shoppers increased their spending US retailers in Octoberthe Commerce Department said. While sales at auto dealerships accounted for much of the gain, electronics and appliance stores, bars and restaurants also saw higher purchases, a sign of healthy consumer spending.

However, the latest quarterly results from Best Buy, Target and other retailers underscored that some will have an easier time than others getting customers to part with their money.

Walmartthe nation’s largest retailer, enters the holiday season with strong momentum after better-than-expected third-quarter sales of toys, home goods and groceries. But Goal reported sluggish quarterly sales as cautious consumers limited their spending on clothing and other non-essential items.

Many retailers have pushed holiday sales earlier in October than last year to help shoppers spread their spending.

Shoppers were distracted heading into this month US presidential election. According to Circana, general merchandise sales fell 9% in the two weeks ending November 9, but have been recovering since the election.

The National Retail Federation predicted shoppers would increase their expenses in November and December by between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to the same period a year ago. During the 2023 holiday shopping season, spending increased by 3.9% compared to 2022.

Online sales so far this holiday season have exceeded expectations, according to Adobe Digital Insights, a division of software company Adobe. US consumers spent $77.4 billion online between November 1 and 24, up 9.6% from the same period last year. Adobe forecast an increase of 8.4% for the full season.

Despite the early sales, Adobe believes there will be better bargains on Black Friday. Analysts consider the five-day Black Friday weekend, including Cyber ​​Monday, to be a key barometer of consumers’ willingness to spend during the remainder of the season.

Vivek Pandya, the principal analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said shoppers are paying more attention to discounts than last year, and their focus on bargain hunting will determine what sells and when.

For example, according to Adobe’s analysis, Thanksgiving is the best time to shop online and get the biggest discounts on sporting goods, toys, furniture and appliances. But Black Friday is the best time for that buy TVs online. People who bought TV earlier this season found discounts averaging 10.8%, while waiting until Friday is expected to yield 24% discounts, according to Adobe Digital Insights.

However, Cyber ​​Monday is expected to be the best time to buy clothes and gadgets such as phones and computers online. Discounts on electronics peaked at 10.9% off the manufacturer’s suggested price between November 1 and 24, but are expected to be 30% off on Cyber ​​Monday, Adobe said.

Across the board, Black Friday weekend discounts should peak at 30% on Cyber ​​Monday and then drop to around 15%, according to Adobe research.

For brick-and-mortar stores, the day after Thanksgiving is again the busiest shopping day of the season, according to retail technology company Sensormatic Solutions, which tracks store traffic.

“Black Friday is still an incredibly important day for retailers,” said Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic. “It’s important for them to be able to attract customers to their store and give them that experience of what it’s like to browse, touch and feel items. It could also be an indication for retailers of what to expect for the rest of the holiday season.”

Mall of America hopes to surpass the 12,000 shoppers it saw last year within the first hour of opening at 7 a.m.

“People come to get the deals, but more importantly, they come for the excitement, the energy and the traditions surrounding Black Friday,” said Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer.