Why mass shootings and violence increase in the summer

The summer months often see violence and mass shootings, especially around July 4, one of the deadliest days of the year.

a flood of shootings around the holidays a year ago, more than a dozen people were killed and more than 60 injured. Just two years ago, there was a mass shooting during a 4th of July parade in which seven people died near Chicago.

The Gun Violence Archive, which tracks mass shootings involving four or more people, regardless of whether they are killed, shows that June, July and August had the highest number of mass shootings in the past decade. The lowest numbers were from December through March.

According to the archives, Independence Day topped the list of 58 mass shootings in the past 10 years, closely followed by July 5.

“It’s about the gathering, the leisure, the drinking,” said James Alan Fox, a criminologist and professor at Northeastern University who oversaw a mass murder database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today in cooperation with the university.

In the first half of this year, there were 19 mass killings — 14 of them shootings — with at least four deaths in the U.S., the database found. In 2023, the country recorded the highest number of mass shootings — 39 — since records began.

Researchers point to a combination of factors that historically cause more violence and shootings to occur during the summer months.

Mass murders are much more likely to occur in the home and the victims are usually relatives or close acquaintances of the shooter.

When schools are closed, families spend more time together. Children are often home all day, and when everyone lives under one roof, there is a greater chance of more victims, said Jesenia Pizarro, a criminology professor at Arizona State University.

Teens also have more free time. “It’s like the possibilities change in the summer,” she said.

After two mass shootings within hours of each other in Dayton, Ohio, in late June left two people dead and nine injured, police said one of the shootings occurred in a vacant home where hundreds of teenagers and young adults had gathered.

“It could have been a lot worse,” said Eric Henderson, the city’s assistant chief, who noted that it was the third large party since mid-June, when trouble broke out after youths took over a vacant house.

Family reunions, block parties and summer festivals bring more people together — and create more opportunities for trouble, especially if drinking is involved.

“That doesn’t mean these things don’t happen in March or January. They just don’t happen as much as they do in the summer,” said Alex Piquero, a criminologist at the University of Miami. “We know that almost every summer there’s an increase in violence. So I expect that to happen this summer. I expect that to happen next summer and the summer after that.”

The chances of you becoming a victim of a mass shooting are still extremely small, but it does mean there could potentially be more casualties if something happens at a crowded event.

During the first weekend of this summer, several shootings took place in which several people were killed or injured at large gatherings, including in Montgomery, Alabama, where gunfire broke out during an unauthorized street party with more than 1,000 people. Police said nine people were shot and investigators found more than 350 fired shell casings.

Multiple studies have established a link warm weather and higher than normal temperatures with tempers rising — and not just in the summer. They also link higher temperatures to more violent crime, although other factors often play a role.

Jillian Snider, a former New York City police officer who now teaches at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said she saw this firsthand in neighborhoods where the lack of air conditioning forced people to take to the sidewalk or go to the park on sweltering days.

“It makes people a little angry because there’s no place to cool off and tensions are building,” she said. “You can’t escape it, you’re just more upset.”

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Sharon Johnson, an Associated Press reporter in Atlanta, contributed.