Why did the Bayesian capsize? Prosecutors to probe keel of £30m superyacht and speak to boat’s designer as unearthed clip from 2019 tornado shows what SHOULD happen in stormy conditions

Italian prosecutors will speak to the designers of the Bayesian superyacht and analyse the ship’s keel. A fragment found in 2019 reveals what might have happened when the ship was hit by a waterspout.

Five bodies were discovered yesterday as divers launched an urgent search for six missing people from the £30million yacht after it sank while at anchor at around 5am on Monday.

While 15 of the 12 guests and 10 crew members managed to escape and end up on a life raft, owner Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, Morgan Stanley International Chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, and Clifford Chance attorney Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda remain missing.

As the search for the last missing person, whose identity has not yet been confirmed, gets underway, prosecutors will investigate the ship’s keel, which was partially up at the time of the storm.

The keel, which runs like a large fin beneath the boat and acts as a counterbalance to the tall mast, was not fully down, despite bad weather being forecast hours earlier.

CCTV footage shows a tornado pushing a large superyacht with a mast resembling the Bayesian mast onto its side

But instead of tilting, the mast quickly flips straight back up to its upright position

Experts told the Mail that it is quite normal for the keel not to be fully lowered when a ship is at anchor. But given the forecast storms and the portholes left open, it raises questions about the cause of the tragedy.

Prosecutors are reportedly keen to speak to the ship’s designers after Captain James Catfield was questioned for two hours on Wednesday. The company that built the boat is now claiming human error was the cause.

This is evident from an unearthed video from Auckland, New Zealand, which shows what happens when a ship like the Bayesian capsizes during stormy weather.

The CCTV footage shows a tornado hitting a large superyacht with a mast similar in style to the Bayesian side mast.

But instead of capsizing, the mast quickly snaps straight back up.

It has not yet been confirmed whether the bodies found yesterday are those of Mr Lynch or his 18-year-old daughter Hannah. However, Italian media reported that the pair were found in the same cabin, wedged between two mattresses.

The body of the yacht’s chef, Recaldo Thomas, was found shortly after the tragedy.

As questions mount over how such a sturdy ship, which previously sailed in Antarctica and was described as “bulletproof,” could sink, Giovanni Costantino, CEO of Italy’s Sea Group, has spoken out about the tragedy.

ISG bought Bayesian builders Perini Navi two years ago. Mr Costantino said: ‘This was a human error, the yacht sank because it was taking on water. Where exactly the investigators will tell us. The dynamics of the sinking can be seen and read from AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and lasted for 16 minutes.

‘We have given this information to the prosecutors of Termini Immerse. The images make it look like the yacht took on water for four minutes.

‘It only took one gust of wind to turn her over, bringing in even more water. She then righted herself for a moment before going down.’

Earlier, a company spokesperson told MailOnline that ‘procedures on the luxury liner were not followed’ and that the sinking was due to ‘portholes being left open despite bad weather being forecast hours earlier’.

A spokesman said: ‘The Bayesian was built to very high standards and would not have sunk if the crew had followed the correct procedures.

‘A storm had been forecast earlier, no fishing boats were out and yet the portholes were not closed. The yacht sank because a huge amount of water came in through the open portholes.’

The spokesman added: ‘The Bayesian boat would have floated in all weather conditions, even if it was tossed from side to side in gale force winds. But with the portholes open it would never have been able to stay afloat.

‘The design made the yacht extremely sturdy, but it could not stand because a huge amount of water came in through the open portholes.

‘The yacht is built to withstand all conditions. The mast has nothing to do with it, it was built that way when it was launched and in 2020 in Spain the yacht was overhauled, it sank because the procedures in bad weather were not followed.’

The Bayesian was 56 metres long, had a 74 metre mast and was built in 2008 by David Hutchinson, skipper of sister ship Rosehearty, who told Boat International that ‘she was bulletproof’.

He told the trade magazine: “We’ve been to Antarctica and Chile and had the ship in winds of up to 70 knots,” but they’ve never been in a situation he found unmanageable.

The Bayesian sank within minutes after being hit by a tornado while anchored off Porticello, near Palermo, Sicily, on Monday.

Bayesian’s leader James Cutfield, 51, survived and is currently in hospital.

The Public Prosecution Service is investigating the theory that the yacht’s portholes and hatches were not closed in time before the storm, despite the predicted bad weather. They are also investigating whether the crew is liable for this.

Italy’s Sea Group completed the acquisition of Perini Navi in ​​2022 for €80 million. A press release at the time said the company was “extremely pleased” with the purchase, as it complemented its “expertise in the sailing yacht sector.”