Why Australia’s cities could go up in flames: Expert warns of catastrophic fire risk – as Los Angeles battles ‘apocalyptical’ blaze: ‘Nowhere to hide’
An Australian professor has issued a chilling warning about the bushfires ravaging Los Angeles, saying it could happen on the outskirts of Sydney or Melbourne.
It comes as the death toll from the California inferno has now reached five, with 100,000 people ordered to evacuate and another 100,000 put on standby as firefighters battle hellish conditions on the front lines of at least five different fires.
The fires have spread to the suburbs, including the affluent Pacific Pallisades neighborhood, where celebrity homes have been reduced to ash and rubble.
University of Tasmania professor of pyrogeography and fire science David Bowman said on Thursday that Australia’s suburbs were not immune to bushfires.
‘Could something similar happen in major Australian cities – and how prepared are we? The answers are: yes, and not a big deal,” he wrote in one piece The conversation.
Australian cities lack the strong Santa Ana winds that fan the LA flames, Prof Bowman said, but they do have downslope winds that come over mountain ranges.
‘There is a chance of a fire breaking out in the Australian suburbs. It happened in Canberra in 2003.
‘And in a big city like Sydney or Melbourne it could happen again. We have all the ingredients.
University of Tasmania professor of pyrogeography and fire sciences David Bowman said on Thursday Australian suburbs were not immune to bushfires
The LA fires have reached the suburbs, including the affluent Pacific Pallisades neighborhood, where celebrity homes have been reduced to ash and rubble
Australian cities lack the strong Santa Ana winds that fan the LA flames, Professor Bowman said, but they do have downslope winds that come over mountain ranges.
“If you have the wrong wind, the wrong fire and the wrong time, a fire can move into an urban area very quickly.”
Professor Bowman said older houses with older gardens were particularly at risk.
‘If you have a more modern housing stock (which tends to be better at defending against ember attacks), and the houses are more spaced out and the gardens are more manageable, then you might be fine.’
He said suburban areas needed better boundaries between houses, clearer gardens and fire breaks, as well as fire safety messaging aimed at the suburbs, not just rural residents.
“Many regional and rural areas in Australia have places of last resort – safe places for the community to go when all other bushfire plans have failed,” he said.
“The tragedy in LA shows that we need these places in cities too.
‘People should also be educated about what to expect at the evacuation point when you arrive. Whenever possible, they should bring their own food, water and medications and include pets in their plan.
‘And the planning discussion should involve residents in fire-prone areas installing their own specially designed fire shelters at home, if they can afford it.’
Thousands of homes and structures have already been lost across California, but with the fires still burning, it’s impossible for officials to get a handle on the true extent of the loss
If a fire breaks out in the suburbs, damage could be variable, he said. Some houses might burn down and others might survive.
But the worst scenario is what is called ‘house-to-house ignition’, where the houses become the fuel.
“The other scary dimension is what happens when water supplies run out, which is reportedly happening in some parts of Los Angeles,” he explained.
‘Due to global warming, bushfires in Australia are becoming more frequent and intense. As wildfires become more common, home insurance costs increase. This will have an impact on the cost of living and on the wider economy.
“The LA fires show that when it comes to climate change, there is no place to hide. Authorities and communities around the world need to rethink their assumptions about forest fire risk and preparedness. This also applies to people who live in cities.
“Many regional and rural areas in Australia have bushfire sites of last resort – safe places for the community to go when all other bushfire plans have failed.
“The tragedy in LA shows that we need these places in cities too. Also, people should have a plan for how to get there (walking or cycling where possible) so that there are no traffic jams as everyone tries to escape.’
A fierce new wildfire broke out in LA’s Hollywood Hills at 6 p.m. local time on Wednesday.
The worst-case scenario is what is called ‘house-to-house ignition’, where homes become the fuel, Prof Bowman said.
The fire has prompted an evacuation of the iconic Hollywood Boulevard, amid warnings that another 100,000 residents should be prepared to evacuate their homes.
Thousands of homes and structures have already been lost across California, but with the fires still burning, it is impossible for officials to get a handle on the true extent of the losses.
A trio of smaller fires burning across the state are now under control, but several are still burning, in addition to the Hollywood Hills fire that just ignited.
To make matters worse, the National Weather Service says gusty winds and very dry conditions will continue to fuel fires in the Los Angeles area in the coming days.
Australia is no stranger to bushfires, which are a natural part of the country’s environment. But the danger has increased in recent years.
The Black Summer, which spanned the summer of 2019-2020, was one of the worst fire seasons on record.
Fires in multiple states killed at least 34 people, destroyed 3,000 buildings and killed or displaced about 3 billion animals.
A composite made from NASA satellite images showed where wildfires ravaged the country between December 5, 2019 and January 5, 2020.
A composite made from NASA satellite images showed where wildfires ravaged the country between December 5, 2019 and January 5, 2020.
“The scale is a bit exaggerated due to the gloss of the rendering, but is generally consistent with the information on the NASA website,” said image creator Anthony Hearsey.