Why AP called Arizona for Trump
WASHINGTON — The Associated Press called out the president-elect Donald Trump the winner in Arizona on Saturday evening after voting updates in Maricopa and other counties increased his overall lead, putting the state beyond the vice president’s reach Kamala Harris.
At the time the AP called the race at 9:21 p.m. ET, Trump was leading Harris 52.6% to 46.4%, a margin of about 185,000 votes. Harris needed to win about seven out of 10 votes of the approximately 443,000 uncounted ballots remaining, a percentage that steadily grew as additional votes were counted.
Trump has now swept all seven hotly contested presidential battlegrounds, winning 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Harris. The number needed to win the presidency is 270.
In 2020, President Joe Biden narrowly carried the state over Trump, but he won Maricopa County by a margin of 50 percentage points to 48. On Saturday, Trump led Harris 52 to 47.
The AP will only declare a winner if it can determine that a trailing candidate cannot close the gap and overtake the voting leader.
Here’s a look at what the AP called this race:
CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).
WINNER: Trump.
POLL CLOSING TIME: Tuesday 9:00 PM ET. Arizona does not release votes until all precincts have reported or one hour after all polls close, whichever comes first, usually at 10:00 PM ET.
ABOUT THE RACE: Both Harris and Trump crossed this border state, where immigration is a prominent issue, several times before Election Day.
Trump put immigration at the center of his candidacy and vowed to deport people without legal documentation, while Harris called for pathways to citizenship and tighter security at the border.
Independent voters make up the largest bloc in the state, followed by Republicans and then Democrats, who have managed to win Senate and governorship elections since 2018.
Biden became only the second Democrat in more than seventy years to win the state.
Both candidates were running for vote-rich Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, Mesa and Tempe. Trump won the county by three points in 2016, while Biden won by a two-point margin four years later. Arizona is primarily an early voting state. In 2016, more than three-quarters of the votes were cast early. In 2020, this increased to almost 90%.
WHY AP CALLS THE RACE:
In statewide elections dating back a decade, Democrats have always carried four counties in both winning and losing campaigns: Apache, Coconino, Pima and Santa Cruz.
Harris had large leads over Trump in all four counties, but she performed well below Biden’s 2020 performance.
She followed Trump in decisive Maricopa County, which Biden won in 2020 and was a must-win county for Democratic candidates statewide in recent elections.
Although Harris very briefly led in the statewide vote counting on election night, Trump has consistently led since then.
The AP’s analysis of Arizona’s voting history and political demographics at the county level found there was no scenario that would allow Harris to close the gap. The analysis also found that even if the remaining updates showed voting swings in Harris’ favor, they would not be enough to give her the lead.
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Read more about how and why the AP declares the winners of the US elections at Explanation of the 2024 elections, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping you understand American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory reporting on elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.