Who will replace fabulist liar George Santos? Democrats look to flip New York seat during Tuesday’s special election and cut further into Republican’s extremely slim majority in the House

Voters in New York will decide Tuesday who will replace disgraced former Congressman George Santos in a race that could define House politics for the rest of the year.

Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Pilip are locked in a tight battle for the vacant seat that includes parts of Long Island and Queens. The swing district that has elected both Republicans and Democrats in recent years.

The special election on February 13 comes as Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives with just 219 seats, while Democrats have 212 seats.

With such a slim majority, the Republican Party is struggling to make progress on Chairman Mike Johnson’s most pressing priorities.

Just this week, Republicans suffered a painful blow when they failed to oust Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in a chaotic vote. If Democrats win one more seat before the revote to unseat Mayorkas can take place, Republicans can say goodbye to thoughts of impeachment.

At the same time, Republicans in the House of Representatives are struggling with efforts to pass aid to Israel after a standalone bill also crashed and burned.

With the threat of their majority shrinking even further and Democrats looking to flip the House of Representatives this fall, all eyes are on the crucial special election in New York, where more than $25 million in advertising could be in the race by Election Day are issued.

Who is on the ballot?

Democrats are aiming to win back the seat with the election of Tom Suozzi, a former three-term congressman who represented the district from 2017 to 2023 before launching a lengthy bid for governor.

Republicans have put their faith in Republican candidate Mazi Pilip, an Israeli-American who served in the Israeli army before immigrating to the US and being elected as a lawmaker in Nassau County.

An Emerson College poll released Thursday shows Suozzi and Pilip in a tight race, with Suozzi at 50 percent and Pilip at 47 percent among likely voters.

Another Newsday/Siena poll also found Suozzi with a slight lead over Pilip from 48 percent to 44 percent.

With the race now statistically even, both candidates have campaigned on issues that have taken center stage in recent months, such as border security and support for Israel.

Issues at stake

Pilip and Suozzi both held dueling press conferences outside a migrant shelter in Queens last month, bringing the crisis to the forefront of the race as the debate over the border flared in Washington.

Suozzi has criticized House Republicans for refusing to negotiate on the border and has taken aim at his opponent’s opposition to the bipartisan border bill introduced in the Senate. Pilip has criticized the bipartisan deal, claiming it “legalizes” the US invasion of the southern border.

The issue also plays out on the air. In an ad targeting Suozzi by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP Super PAC, Suozzi is shown saying how he “kicked ICE out” as Nassau County director, but Suozzi has backed off and released his own ad in which he defends the immigration authorities.

The candidates have also clashed fiercely over abortion, which has proven to be a successful line of attack for Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade in 2022. Suozzi and several outside groups supporting him have taken out ads on the issue.

Pilip, the mother of seven who describes herself as “pro-life,” has said she would not support a national abortion ban and that every woman should be able to make her own decision, but she has expressed support for the Dobbs decision in which the Supreme Court returned abto-states.

Perhaps the point where the candidates are more closely aligned is their position on Israel. Both have actively involved New York’s Jewish community in waging a war in Gaza following the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7.

Suozzi distinguished himself from some Democrats by announcing his support for the Republican-led standalone Israel aid bill.

He said that while he would prefer a comprehensive bipartisan package, he is committed to doing whatever it takes to stand with Israel. That bill failed in the House of Representatives.

Pilip, an Ethiopian Jew who served as a paratrooper in the Israeli army, has also been outspoken in her support for Israel and critical of the rise of anti-Semitism in New York.

While Pilip and Suozzi have largely remained focused on their districts, the special election has been overshadowed by the 2024 presidential race.

Pilip has accused Suozzi of voting with Biden “100% of the time” and has tried to link him to the so-called squad. Suozzi has rejected attempts to link him to the progressive wing of the Democratic party in response to the only debate about being “as credible as you being a member of George Santos’ volleyball team.”

Meanwhile, Pilip, a registered Democrat despite being a Republican, has declined to say whether she voted for President Trump in 2020. She has pledged to vote for whoever the Republican nominee is in 2024, but has said Trump “cannot represent us” if convicted.

Replaces George Santos

The seat in New York’s Third District has been vacant since Republican Congressman Santos was expelled from Congress in December.

And while many Republicans want to look beyond the election of the fabulous serial liar who flipped the district seat from blue to red in 2022, his presence looms large in the race to replace him.

Suozzi has called out Santos several times, warning that his opponent is “unvetted and unprepared.”

Pilip has retracted accusations that her public reputation is poor, but the memory of Santos is hard to shake.

Last fall, Santos pleaded not guilty to multiple charges. He is accused of stealing the identities of campaign donors, racking up thousands of dollars in bills and using campaign contributions to pay for personal expenses such as designer clothes and Botox.

In November, a long-awaited House Ethics Committee report found substantial evidence that Santos violated ethics and committed crimes, prompting a motion to expel him from Congress.

On December 1, Santos became only the sixth House member ever expelled from the House, creating a vacancy in New York’s Third District.

Santos will stand trial in September.