When ‘Super El Nino’ Will Fry Australia — and What to Expect from the Weather Phenomenon
- ‘Really strong’ El Nino event expected this year
- Will likely bring warmer and drier weather
- Higher risk of wildfires and coral bleaching
Australia is likely to sweat through a ‘super El Nino’ this year, with meteorologists saying the warm climate pattern is ‘very likely’ to hit after three consecutive La Nina events.
Ken Kato, meteorologist for the Early Warning Network, said this wouldn’t be your “garden variety” El Nino either.
“A super El Nino isn’t really an official word, but at this stage it looks like the El Nino will probably be a really strong one,” Mr. Kato told Today.
What sets this one apart from the others (is) if it evolves into an El Nino as strong as currently predicted.
“It will probably develop over winter to spring and may last into early summer this year.”
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA – NewsWire Photos MARCH 17, 2023: People were seen cooling off and tanning on Brisbane’s South Bank as the East Coast enters its second day of a four-day heat wave to close out summer. Image: NCA NewsWire/Tertius Pickard
Australia is likely to sweat through a ‘super El Nino’ from winter to early summer this year, bringing warmer and drier weather
Mr Kato said El Ninos could bring drier-than-normal conditions that tend to encompass large regions of eastern and parts of northern Australia, often leading to warmer-than-average daytime conditions.
It also increases the fire weather,’ he said.
“These are the kinds of weather conditions that increase the risk of wildfires spreading quickly.
‘It also increases the risk of frost, increases the risk of coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef and often causes fewer tropical cyclones on average.’
Firefighters have worked tirelessly fighting the Perth Hills bushfire. Image: Provided by DFES via incident photographer Morten Boe via NCA NewsWire
El Nino, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, which occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than average.
While El Nino is associated with many months of warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, La Nina is associated with a sustained period of cooling.
El Nino and La Nina have one of the strongest influences on Australia’s year-to-year climate variability.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center found last week that there is an 80 percent chance that a moderate El Niño will occur in the coming months, with a more than 90 percent chance that it will last into the summer.
Currently there is a 55 percent chance of a strong El Nino, 15 percent more than last month.
There is still a 5 to 10 percent chance that the event will not progress; however, the predictability of its potential strength will become more apparent in the coming weeks.