A major earthquake in California could cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage and thousands of deaths.
There are concerns that the state will be hit by the ‘Big One’ within the next decade – researchers believe the San Andreas Fault ruptures about every 150 years.
If the Big One were to strike, “it would be a matter of a few tens of seconds before the shaking of a San Andreas event tearing apart the segments closest to Los Angeles reaches our urban areas,” says the University’s Jonathan Stewart of California, Los Angeles. Angeles told DailyMail.com.
According to the California Earthquake Authority, the natural disaster would cause destruction in a 100-mile radius around the fault line, which starts near Eureka and ends below Palm Springs, killing at least 1,800 people, collapsing millions of homes and causing more than $290 billion in damage is caused. in case of damage.
The San Andreas Fault runs hundreds of miles across the state, stretching through cities such as San Francisco, San Jose and Los Angeles.
Scientists predicted that the next ‘Big One’ will hit California within 30 years, due to the San Andreas Fault. The photo shows what Los Angeles might look like if a magnitude 6 earthquake were to occur
Although it could take more than a century for a 7.8 magnitude earthquake to occur, Stewart said smaller parts of San Andreas have ruptured recently, including one in Northern California in 1906 and Fort Tejon in 1857.
The next major earthquake to hit Los Angeles would likely cause 1,600 fires and trap 750 people in buildings — which would require two and a half weeks of search and rescue efforts, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).
According to the Concrete Coalition, as of 2011, approximately 16 to 17,000 concrete buildings in 23 of California’s most earthquake-prone zones could fall if the next major earthquake strikes.
The zones include San Francisco (3,200 homes), Oakland (1,300 homes) and San Jose (363 homes).
The last magnitude 7.8 earthquake in California struck San Francisco in 1906, causing 3,000 deaths and $524 million in property damage in 1906 – equating to $117 billion in 2024.
A separate magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck the suburbs of Los Angeles in 1857, but fortunately only two people were killed as the area was unpopulated at the time.
This earthquake is known as the Great Fort Tejon earthquake and is the second largest ever recorded in US history. Property has been destroyed as far away as Santa Cruz, more than 220 miles away.
Given that 9.7 million people will live in the Los Angeles area in 2022, if the same magnitude were to occur today it would cause billions of dollars in damage and likely result in significant loss of life, the report said . Los Angeles Almanac.
The USGS has indicated that there is a 60 percent chance that the southernmost part of San Andreas will rupture with a magnitude greater than 6.7 within the next 30 years.
This would impact the Hayward Fault in the Bay Area and the Newport Inglewood Fault in Southern California.
“Californians know that a damaging earthquake can happen at any time, along with any number of faults across the state,” the CEA spokesperson said.
“But we also know that there are tools available now – tools like disaster plans, insurance and home renovations – that can make a significant difference when it happens.”
Fears of an earthquake in California recently became more real after a study led by a team in Italy warned that the San Andreas Fault could rupture this year.
Parts of the system near Parkfield tremble about every 22 years; the last earthquake had a magnitude of 6 in 2004.
“The time it will take us to recover from a major earthquake — the economic damage, the social disruption, the loss of business — will set California back decades,” said Tom Tobin, former executive director of the California Seismic Safety Commission. the Los Angeles Times.
“And it will be a price we will have to pay for decades to come.”
Depending on where the earthquake occurred, an earthquake of magnitude less than seven would impact people living between 12 and 20 miles from the main site, affecting major metropolitan areas such as LA and San Francisco.
A magnitude 7.8 earthquake could kill 1,800 people and cost $290 billion in damage
Large earthquakes of magnitude seven or greater can spread at a range of two to three miles per second. Pictured here is what a magnitude 7.8 earthquake would look like after it ruptured along the San Andreas Fault
But earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.5 would have a much greater impact, hitting towns and cities up to 220 miles away, devastating LA, San Bernadino, San Jose and other large areas at a speed of two miles per second.
The ‘Big One’ would have a devastating impact on surrounding infrastructure, leveling buildings and homes and damaging water and electricity lines, leaving thousands of people in limbo, according to Stewart.
If the San Andreas were to rupture, it would cause “the collapse of vulnerable structures and a substantial interruption of critical services.” [including] water, cell phone, [and] transportation systems,” Stewart said.
While the earthquake may have originated near San Francisco or San Jose, it could have a much larger impact on the entire state, he added.
“For example, a breach in San Andreas that severed a water supply line for So Cal would impact water supplies throughout the region.”
Researchers have found that magnitude 7.8 earthquakes occur every 150 years, meaning California is already long overdue for the next
Depending on where the earthquake occurred, the hardest hit areas for areas with a magnitude of less than seven would extend approximately between 12 and 30 kilometers from the main location.
A spokesperson for the California Earthquake Authority (CEA) told DailyMail.com that it is not the movement of the ground that poses the most danger during an earthquake, but rather the “performance of man-made structures.”
“Houses built to modern standards are more resistant to earthquakes,” he said, adding that “owners of older homes should renovate those buildings against earthquake damage.”
Homes built before 2000 are more vulnerable to high-magnitude earthquakes because they are built using weak columns that support the ground floor and the living area is often above the garage.
These types of houses are called soft floor houses because the garage door is a skinny and flimsy support system that can bend or break when an earthquake shakes the structure.
A seismic simulator revealed how parts of the state would be hit as a magnitude-7 [seven] earthquake focused on the San Francisco Bay Area.
Scientists have the EQSIM earthquake simulator by documenting earthquakes along the northern Hayward fault in recent years and creating a data set to predict ground motion simulations.
The simulator shows where the earthquake would start and how it would quickly spread across the area to other regions of the state.
“Our simulation software, called EQSIM, can now generate ground motion simulations with unprecedented accuracy and unprecedented spatial coverage,” said project leader David McCallen, senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.