What Tottenham need vs Marseille to qualify for Champions League last-16 and who can they play next?

Tottenham will face Marseille tonight with Champions League qualifiers still in their hands, but despite being at the top of Group D, their long-awaited return to the top European league could end prematurely.

The North London side defied the odds of qualifying for the Champions League last season, with Antonio Conte – who replaced Nuno Espirito Santo in November – inspiring his side to a top four finish that seemed implausible when he arrived.

Conte will be forced to watch from the stands as his side play the most important game of their season so far after being shown a red card when Tottenham suffered a bitter disappointment against Sporting Lisbon last week.

Tottenham had a golden opportunity last week to seal qualifying for the last 16 with one more game to play, needing only to beat the Portuguese team at home. And after falling behind on an early goal from Marcus Edwards, Harry Kane believed he had completed the turnaround, but his 95th-minute winner was controversially ruled out by VAR.

So instead of qualifying for the knockouts as group winners, the action in a tempting Group D continues until the final day, with all four teams still able to advance.

Sportsmail takes you through the permutations below and explains how Tottenham can qualify tonight.

What does the table look like with one game to play?

Tottenham are, as mentioned, top of Group D with one game to go, with eight points out of a possible 15 in their five games so far.

Tonight’s opponent, Marseille, is bottom of the group with just six points, but remarkably enough, a win tonight can lift the French team to first place.

That is only if the other match, between Sporting Lisbon and Eintracht Frankfurt, ends in a draw, with the pair finishing second and third respectively.

The advantage is Sporting, who put up a great fight at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last Wednesday, the home side in their clash against the Bundesliga tonight.

What does Tottenham actually need to move forward?

In short, Tottenham need a point. With a win, the North London side guarantees the top spot, giving them an easier last-16 clash.

But even if Tottenham tie, the North London side will still progress to the knockout stage – while Marseille would be dropped from the competition.

A draw would put Tottenham on nine points, with Sporting Lisbon and Eintracht Frankfurt both currently at seven. They would both finish in eight with a draw, while only one team would finish above them if either side won.

Any loss to Tottenham, however, and they drop out before the knockouts begin. The remaining match would decide whether Marseille continue as group winner or second.

If Tottenham lose and the remaining game ends in a draw, Marseille would win the group. Tottenham would then fall under Sporting – who would finish second – as the Portuguese side claimed a win and a draw against them.

Tottenham beat Eintracht Frankfurt at home and split the points in Germany, so in that scenario they would finish third.

Essentially a point will see Tottenham progress. Due to a defeat, they fall into the Europa League.

Who could play Tottenham in the last 16?

The eight group winners all have the advantage of qualifying for the draw of the last 16. All seeded teams will play their first leg, with the second home.

The group winners will all face off against a runner-up, with no team playing against another team from the same country at this stage. They also cannot play against a team from their original group.

If Tottenham win Group D they can play:

Benfica, Club Brugge, Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan, Napoli, Paris Saint-Germain, Porto, Real Madrid, AC Milan, RB Salzburg, RB Leipzig, Shakhtar Donetsk

If Tottenham finish second they can play the following:

Napoli, Club Brugge, Porto, Bayern Munich Real Madrid, RB Leipzig, Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica