What to expect from the Switch 2 launch

The Nintendo Switch 2, which may not even be called that, will be released in 2025. We think. It will launch with some games, but we don’t know which ones. We have a relatively complete, if vague, picture of what the console will be – essentially a new, more powerful Switch – but we don’t know what else will differentiate it from its predecessor.

There’s no doubt that the Switch 2’s launch will be one of two seismic events in gaming in 2025, alongside Grand Theft Auto 6 (assuming Rockstar’s game releases in Fall 2025). But for a console that could reportedly launch as early as March or April, it’s remarkable how much about the Switch 2 remains uncertain: the details, sure, but also the bigger picture. What’s at stake for Nintendo? What can go wrong? And how will the rest of the industry respond?

Before we ask some of those existential questions, let’s start with a summary of what we know so far, and what we don’t know yet.

Here’s what we know for sure about Switch 2

Here’s everything Nintendo has officially said about its next console:

Here’s what we think we know about Switch 2

Thanks to well-researched reporting and leaks, a fairly clear picture of the new machine has emerged before the unveiling:

Here are some pretty solid guesses about Switch 2 games

Notably, there have been no leaks or well-substantiated reports regarding the Switch 2’s software lineup. But knowing what we do in terms of internal development at Nintendo, we can make some educated guesses.

Here’s what we absolutely don’t know about Switch 2

But seriously. How many shall it costs?

This is the big one. Nintendo is in a good position; the Switch has built a huge install base for the company, plus Nintendo has all its beloved properties and decades of trust in its brand to lean on. But like all tech companies right now, it’s under a lot of pressure on prices, and one wrong move could spell disaster.

The Switch launched in 2017 for $299, and the official sticker price hasn’t dropped a cent since then. This is in line with changing price trends: due to chip shortages, inflation and the slowing pace of technological progress, this generation of consoles has not dropped in price as much as previous generations. (It’s also true that Switch demand has remained as consistent as Nintendo has necessary to lower prices, and it has launched the Switch Lite at a lower price.)

In this environment, Nintendo will have to figure out how to package more advanced technology while keeping the price reasonable. The Switch 2 is unlikely to be cheaper than $349, the current price of an OLED Switch model. $399 seems like a safe bet – the same price as the base Steam Deck. Any more than this and Nintendo will face uncomfortable comparisons to the new wave of PC handhelds (a Steam Deck OLED is $549; an Asus ROG Ally is $499) and risk pricing itself out of the traditional family market.

What’s at stake for Nintendo?

Almost everything. As I said, Nintendo is in a pretty good place right now, but the games market is changing quickly. The cost of producing games is skyrocketing without market growth being able to pay for it, margins are being eaten away everywhere, and traditional console hardware platforms are losing influence. Nintendo’s business model – selling hardware and exclusive games to play on it – is emblematic of the old ways, but even Sony is now publishing on PC. If Switch 2 goes wrong, Nintendo will likely have to face the ultimate humiliation of becoming a third-party publisher.

At the same time, Nintendo is better protected from the winds of change than anyone else. It has vast cash reserves, incredibly valuable IP, a growing multimedia influence and an inventive approach to technology that keeps the costs of both hardware and software low. Perhaps it can survive another generation on its upper echelon.

Nintendo has also typically taken an innovative approach to its hardware platforms, which has worked more often (Wii, DS, Switch) than not (Wii U). But this is not necessarily the time for innovation.

The Switch was Nintendo’s attempt to maintain its dominant position in handheld gaming while keeping one foot in the door, and it was a roaring success. Since then, Valve has come at the same problem from the other direction with Steam Deck: what if you could take your home game library with you on the go? – and proven that it is possible and that there is a lot of demand for it. Now Microsoft and Sony are both planning portable consoles.

The dedicated handheld space is about to become more aggressively competitive than ever before, and Nintendo needs to use the Switch 2 to dig in and defend its position. That’s why it’s already announced backward compatibility, so that owners of the 140 million Switches Nintendo has sold can rest assured that their libraries will continue to exist. For perhaps the first time in the company’s lifespan, continuity is everything, and the company can’t afford to wander off on tangents.

That’s why the Switch 2 sounds like it will be Nintendo’s most conservative design since the GameCube. It’s simple has to succeed.