What the NFL’s final four can teach the rest of the league
Running the ball is still important
What makes a violation great? In short, the ability to attack multiple areas of the field effectively and emphasize the defense. Good offenses can do something so well that the defense has to adapt to stop it. Big offenses punish the defense for those adjustments.
We live in a passing era, but efficient ball possession is still the best way to force a defense to adapt. This isn’t about the outdated idea that strength wins championships. A strong run game forces the defense to cover its personnel groups: they have to go big to slow down the run, making them vulnerable to the pass.
Previously, teams had to execute early downs to set up the pass. Now that’s reversed, so teams often pass early. But those early downs passing concepts are all built on the threat of the run – RPOs, game action passes and dropback concepts with one of the oh-so-terrifying initial run actions.
Mid-game action is the best way to pass on early downs in the NFL. Play action from a pistol is not as effective. Combining run-and-pass looks is key. Not how well or often you run
— Greg Olsen (@gregolsen88) January 16, 2024
Coaches call it “layering of the offense”, one look, one formation, one game, which flows into every other dish on the menu. The first brick in the wall to fool defenses – through personnel, pre-snap moves, or a play fake – is the run game, even though running the ball itself has no such effect. n impact as twenty years ago.
The 49ers and Ravens finished first and second in success rate this season. The Lions finished seventh. Only the Chiefs finished outside the top 10 and the Chiefs are blessed with Patrick Mahomes. And even KC ran the ball effectively enough when it mattered most: They rank seventh among playoff teams in rush EPA per game, a measure of down-to-down effectiveness. The Ravens’ offense fell apart in the AFC title game when they abandoned their typical run game, turning the offense into a plodding, predictable mess whenever they tried to throw the ball.
All four were willing to hit the ball at the line of scrimmage to achieve their palette of play-action plays. The last four teams all finished in the top 10 in play-action effectiveness this season.
Running the ball well doesn’t make for a strong play-action game, but it does if you really, really believe the defense want to running the ball is what makes play action sing. That requires dedication, even if it isn’t the most effective way to play in a certain way.
Don’t overpay for your line of defense
The fastest way to become a contender is to generate a pass rush with four defenders. For generations, this meant piling money and cash into your defense line, letting four defenders fend off and hoping the investment would work out.
That is changing. The defense is being more creative in how they can apply pressure using four rushers. trusting their plan just as much as their individual players. Three of this year’s conference finalists were among the stingiest teams in the league when it came to paying their defensive line and edge defenders. And the team that paid the most (by far), the Niners, had the lower pressure rate of all the last four. The Lions, Chiefs and Ravens spent 10% or less of their caps on down linemen and edge defenders. Detroit and KC finished with the highest pressure rates in the league. Here’s what each of this year’s conference finalists committed to their defensive line and edge defenders, and what their returns were.
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Niners – 22% of ceiling (2nd); 17th in printing speed
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Lions – 10% of the limit (24th); 1st in printing speed
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Chiefs – 10% of the limit (25th); 2nd in printing speed
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Raven – 9% of the limit (31st); 23rd in printing speed
Even the Ravens, who finished in the bottom third of the league in pressures, topped the NFL in sacks. In 2023, finding a defensive coordinator who can build a cohesive unit, switch coverage effectively and put together a quality blitz and pressure package is more valuable than paying a handful of star pass rushers.
Find a quarterback who can scramble
No offense can survive on the steady diet of a free agent quarterback – just ask the Packers during those last Aaron Rodgers years. But the ability to expand and create from structure has never been more valuable. Lamar Jackson and Mahomes are two of the league’s best creators, even if they have evolved to play more patiently in the pocket.
The NFC Championship showed the difference between an offense that the quarterback can create all by himself and an offense that depends on the machine functioning at its peak. The Niners would have been bounced back from the postseason had it not been for a career day from their quarterback, Brock Purdy, as an out-of-time maker. Purdy picked up six first downs on scramble plays against the Lions, sustaining drives when his receivers were covered all over the field. He tore up Detroit with his legs and arms during the Niners’ second-half comeback by taking control of the game instead of relying on the offense’s design.
It’s a curious thing about Purdy. As the game progresses, he becomes more willing to move and create. He generally sticks to the script in the first half of the games. However, when the Niners fall behind, he goes into breakout artist mode and unlocks an element of Kyle Shanahan’s offense that was sorely lacking when Jimmy Garoppolo was running the show.
The rule challenge: Jared Goff. Goff is not a creator. He is a rhythm-based quarterback who plays hit-the-back-foot-and-sling-it football from the pocket. When forced to expand, Goff turns into a puddle of panic. But the Lions came up with a nice solution this season. Instead of asking Goff to play backyard football when the initial play faltered, they built in escape valves for rookie Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta finished with the second-highest number of first-down completions this season, behind only Travis Kelce, and gained a ton of yardage after the catch. If the tight end serves as a team’s main threat after the catch, the geometry tilts for the defense. They typically attack the middle of the field, giving the quarterback a higher percentage of throws.
Not every team can land a Jackson, Mahomes or even a Purdy. Finding a natural creator is almost a must if a team wants to win in the postseason. But if you don’t have that luxury, your best bet is to find a tight end who can do damage after the catch. It took the Lions within four games of the Super Bowl.
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There is no one type of head coach that succeeds
Recent coaching carousels have been defined by offensive coordinators. Everyone in Sean McVay’s phone book has been given the opportunity to run a franchise. But this year’s final group of coaches reminded us that there are multiple ways to build a contender.
In the final four we had two offensive play-callers (Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan), a former special teams coach (John Harbaugh) and a tight ends coach who had become an all-seeing, all-knowing and energetic CEO type (Dan Campbell).
The league has taken note. Ben Johnson and Bobby Slowik, the next offensive gurus off the assembly line, were finalists for multiple jobs in the current cycle. Both decided to return to their team for another run. Instead of reverting to the next batch of talented offensive play-callers, teams went elsewhere.
This is how the current cycle ended:
Commanders: Dan Quinn, Cowboys defensive coordinator
Seahawks: Mike Macdonald, Ravens defensive coordinator
Falcons: Raheem Morris, Rams defensive coordinator
Panthers: Dave Canales, Buccaneers offensive coordinator
Chargers: Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh
Titans: Brian Callahan, Bengals offensive coordinator
Raiders: Antonio Pierce, Raiders interim head coach/linebackers coach
Patriots: Jerod Mayo, Patriots inside linebackers coach
For those counting, that’s three defensive coordinators, one college head coach, two linebackers coaches and two offensive coordinators. Only one – Canales in Tampa – fits under the offensive whiz umbrella. Harbaugh is one of the game’s best quarterback coaches, but as his career has progressed, he has increasingly moved into a CEO role. Callahan worked with Joe Burrow to bring LSU’s quarterback offense to the pros; Callahan fits more into Dan Campbell’s culture-overseer bandwagon than that of a schematic guru.
Even if we hand the wise tag to Harbaugh and Callahan, that’s still a five-three split in favor of defensive coaches.
Everyone wants to find a clean formula for the next great head coach. But the job is unique. No other position prepares a coach for the top job in the building better than any other, no matter how close you were to McVay on the sidelines.