What polling shows about the top VP contenders for Kamala Harris
As Vice-Chairman Kamala Harris is preparing to announce her running mate, a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that several of the top candidates for the role are largely unknown to Americans. Arizona Senator. Mark Kelly stands out as a party with greater name recognition and popularity, especially among Democrats.
The investigation, which was conducted after President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the race and Harris was the likely Democratic presidential candidatehighlights the strengths and weaknesses that different politicians can bring to the ballot box, and the challenges they may face if elected.
Kelly, while better known and liked than some alternatives, is still unknown to about half of Americans. And others, like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh ShapiroThough less well-known nationally, they could draw on a deeper pool of support in their home states and regions. Kelly and Shapiro are seen as front-runners, according to people familiar with the process, after Harris’ campaign began screening about a dozen names.
Harris said Tuesday she had not yet decided who her No. 2 will be. But she and whoever she chooses will travel to seven states next week to key battlegrounds including Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina.
Of the four potential Democratic vice presidential candidates included in the poll – Kelly, Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and the governor of North Carolina. Roy KuiperWHO has publicly removed himself out of consideration after the poll was conducted — Kelly has the highest name recognition and popularity, according to the AP-NORC poll.
Americans are more likely to have a positive view of Kelly than a negative one. About 3 in 10 American adults have a very or somewhat positive view of Kelly, while about 2 in 10 have a negative view. Evoking more good feelings than bad feelings is a relative rarity in presidential politics today: Biden and former President Donald Trump have been viewed more negatively than positively for several years.
Like many other contenders, however, Kelly is far from a household name. About half of Americans don’t know enough to have an opinion about him.
But Democrats have mostly warm feelings about Kelly. Forty-five percent have a positive opinion of Kelly. Only about 1 in 10 have a negative opinion of him, and about 4 in 10 don’t know enough to say. Older Democrats — those 45 and older — have mostly positive opinions of Kelly, while younger Democrats are more likely to be unfamiliar with him.
He has proven to be a battle-scarred campaigner, winning a special election in 2020 to wrest Arizona’s Senate seat from Republican control and then retaining it for a full six-year term two years later. The Marine veteran serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee and is an influential voice among Democrats on immigration and border security, a political vulnerability Harris has long held that Republicans have sought to exploit.
Shapiro is largely unknown among Americans and Democrats, except in the Northeast, where he has greater name recognition and popularity. The poll found that 6 in 10 American adults — including 57 percent of Democrats — don’t know enough about Shapiro to form an opinion. About 2 in 10 Americans view him favorably, and a similar share view him unfavorably.
The picture is not much different among Democrats. About a quarter of Democrats have a positive opinion of Shapiro, while 16% have a negative opinion. Older Democrats are more likely to have a positive opinion of Shapiro than younger Democrats, but overall most have yet to form an opinion.
Shapiro was elected governor in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano, a controversial figure who drew opposition and criticism from members of his own party, including then-Republican Senator Pat Toomey.
Unlike the other candidates surveyed in the AP-NORC poll, however, he is significantly better known — and liked — in his home region. In the Northeast, 4 in 10 American adults have a positive view of him. Another 4 in 10 don’t know roughly enough to form an opinion of him, while about 2 in 10 Northeasterners view him negatively.
Democrat Gary Hines, a 68-year-old from Philadelphia, spoke highly of his home state’s governor, adding: “I would hate to see him go because he’s just getting started in Pennsylvania.”
If elected, Beshear will have to introduce himself to most of the country. About 7 in 10 Americans don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. Those who do are about evenly split: 17% of American adults have a positive opinion, and 15% have a negative one.
Democrats, however, have a more positive than negative opinion of Beshear. About a quarter have a very or somewhat positive opinion, while about 1 in 10 have a negative opinion. Nearly two-thirds do not know enough about Beshear to give an opinion.
The scion of a well-known Democratic family in the state, Beshear defeated then-Governor Matt Bevin — a deeply unpopular figure, even in conservative Kentucky — and then won re-election in 2023 against Republican Daniel Cameron, a longtime protégé of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Beshear’s victory last year was credited in part with his advocacy of abortion rights, including a campaign ad in which a sexual abuse survivor attacked Cameron for his views.
Like the other governors being talked about, is governor. Tim Walz doesn’t have much of a national profile — and that also means he’s a relatively clean slate. He wasn’t included in the AP-NORC poll, but a new ABC News/Ipsos pollwho asked about favorability in a slightly different way, found that about 9 in 10 American adults don’t know enough to have an opinion about him. Among Americans with an opinion, opinions are divided between positive and negative.
Walz, who also served 12 years in the House of Representatives, rose on Harris’ shortlist in recent days after he coined “weird” as a new talking point to describe the Republican ticket. It’s a phrase now being used frequently by the vice president and other Democrats.
He currently heads the Democratic Governors Association.
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The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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AP White House correspondent Zeke Miller contributed to this report.