What polling shows about Black voters’ views of Harris and Trump

WASHINGTON — Black registered voters have an overwhelmingly positive view of Vice President Kamala Harris, but are less confident that she will change the country for the better, according to a recent poll from theAP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The poll, conducted in mid-September, found that about seven in 10 black voters have a somewhat or very favorable view of Harris, with little difference between black male and female voters on how they view the Democratic candidate. Younger and older black voters also had similar views of the vice president.

Black voters’ opinions of former President Donald Trump, by contrast, were overwhelmingly negative, underscoring the challenges the Republican candidate faces in his effort to erode Harris’ support among black men. Black voters are a key Democratic constituency, and few are affiliated with the Republican Party. According to the survey, two-thirds of Black voters identify as Democrats, about 2 in 10 identify as independents and about 1 in 10 identify as Republicans.

But the poll also found that despite this dramatic divide in the candidates’ views, black voters are less certain whether Harris would put the country on a better trajectory or make a substantive difference in their own lives. Only about half of black voters say “would change the country for the better” describes Harris very or extremely well, while about 3 in 10 say it describes her “somewhat well” and about 2 in 10 say it describes her “not very good” describes. or ‘not good at all’. And only about half believe the outcome of this presidential election will have “a lot” or “quite a bit” of an impact on them personally, an assessment that is in line with that of Americans in general.

“The Democratic Party is not strong enough for me,” said Raina Johnson, 53, a safety case manager in Chicago. Johnson predicted that Harris would “try to do something for the people,” but she felt Harris would be limited, as she was with (Barack) Obama, “because the Republican Party sidelined him.”

Although Johnson felt the stakes of the election were extremely high, she did not think it would have a major personal impact on her.

‘Cause I’ll still live my life. I’ll just have to roll with the punches,” she said.

When asked which candidate would best handle their top issues, including the economy, health care and crime, black voters had the same answer: Harris.

Like voters overall, about 8 in 10 Black voters said the economy is one of the most important issues on their ballot. But about three-quarters of black voters said health care was one of their top issues, compared with just over half of registered voters, and they were also more likely than the electorate as a whole to say gun policy and crime were top issues. .

In all these areas, as well as on other issues such as abortion and climate change, Harris had a large lead over Trump among black voters. But the size of that lead was greater on some issues than on others. About six-in-ten black voters said Harris was better positioned to handle the economy, while about two-in-ten said this about Trump, giving Harris a lead of about 40 points. She had a roughly 60-point lead over Trump on abortion policy.

The Trump campaign has stepped up what range for black communities this year. The former president’s campaign believes his message on the economy, immigration and traditional values ​​can make a notable breakthrough in Democrats’ traditional base of support among black voters, especially younger black men.

Rod Wettlin, a retired Air Force veteran in Surprise, Arizona, who wants more action on health care and immigration, said he was deeply opposed to Trump and worried about the election’s impact on American democracy.

“What’s going on now is the culmination of a lot of things we’ve been dealing with for years,” Wettlin said. “Hopefully it will be civilized after the elections, but these cats here are already calling for bedlam. And that is their right, I fought for them to have that right. But don’t infringe on mine.”

However, there are signs that some groups of black voters see Harris as a stronger figure. Black women voters and older black voters in particular were likely to describe Harris as someone who would “fight for people like you,” compared to black men and younger black voters.

Relatively few black voters have a positive image of Trump, or see him as a candidate who has important qualities for the presidency. The poll found that about 8 in 10 black voters have a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of Trump, while only 15% have a somewhat or very favorable opinion. About 1 in 10 said “would change the country for the better” or “fight for people like you” at least describes Trump very well, and a similarly low percentage of black voters said Trump would be a good president.

“I think we’re moving in the right direction if Kamala Harris understands it,” said Roslyn Coble, 63, and a resident of Oakboro, North Carolina. “But if Donald Trump gets it, it will be bad. He’s already told us what he’s going to do. He becomes a dictator.”

About seven-in-ten black voters say the phrase “will say anything to win the election” describes Trump at least very well.

In a sign of how former President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw as the Democratic nominee in July may have changed the race, only 55% of Black male voters have a favorable view of Biden, compared to 7 in 10 Black female voters voters.

“He did his best,” Wettlin said. He said Biden should have dropped out of the presidential race much sooner and was skeptical of some of his achievements.

Black voter engagement organizations say they have also seen a burst of energy from voters and advocates since Harris’ entry into the race, and both the Harris and Trump campaigns continue to focus on this group.

The Trump campaign has organized listening sessions and community events in black neighborhoods in cities such as Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee. The campaign also coordinated a “Black Voices for Trump” city bus tour in September. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign has organized a number of events aimed at black voters, especially black men, and has deployed a number of high-profile surrogates, including lawmakers, celebrities and civil rights leaders, to black communities in recent weeks.

___

The survey of 1,771 registered voters was conducted September 12-16, 2024, using a sample from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.