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Manchester United travel to Spain to face Real Sociedad on Thursday in a match that is a straight shoot-out for the all-important first place in Group E of the Europa League.
United failed to reach the Champions League after a dismal campaign last time, entering the Europa League as one of the favorites to take home the trophy in Budapest in May.
Erik ten Hag’s side lost their group game on Thursday at Old Trafford on a controversial penalty, but recovered to win the next four games, beating Sheriff Tiraspol and Omonia Nicosia at home and away, before a head-turning showdown in the final. to put up with Real Sociedad day.
The game must win for United if they are to outdo their group.
Here, Sportsmail takes you through United’s permutations, including how exactly they can win Group E.
Real Sociedad’s win over Old Trafford on matchday means United must win in Spain
Erik ten Hag hopes to win the group to avoid a difficult play-off at the end of February
What does the table look like with one game to play?
United are second in the group with 12 points from their five games to date, three behind Real Sociedad, who have a 100 percent record.
Both sides have already qualified for the knockout stage, while the other two teams in the group – Sheriff Tiraspol and Omonia Nicosia – are out of the Europa League.
Real also have a better goal difference than United – +9 versus +6.
Sheriff will continue their sojourn in European competition if they avoid a home defeat to Omonia on Thursday as they will fall into the Europa Conference League.
What does Manchester United need to outdo the group?
The men of Ten Hag will do nothing less than a victory in Spain with at least two clear goals.
Should United beat Real Sociedad, both teams would finish on 15 points. Under the Europa League tie-break rules, the final placing will be decided on the basis of a personal best between the parties involved.
While the La Liga outfit defeated United 1-0 at Old Trafford in September, the Red Devils must improve on that score in Spain to see Real jump to first place.
United recovered from defeat to Real Sociedad by winning their next four group matches
If United win 2-1, 3-2 or even 4-3, the teams will be tied on goal difference in their head-to-head record, but the Spanish side will take the top spot thanks to their superior goal difference over the six matches. Away goals in the two matches between United and Real Sociedad do not count.
A win with two clear goals gives United a better record in the two games against Sociedad and puts them at the top of the group.
Real are in the driver’s seat as they advance as group winners if they avoid defeat or lose by single goal.
Why is winning the group so important?
The group winners advance directly to the last 16, while the second-placed teams advance to the last 32, which is an effective play-off against a side that drops out of the Champions League.
Getting first place means two games less and, in theory, a friendlier run to the final.
United already have a packed schedule, with two games yet to be rescheduled after Queen Elizabeth II’s death, and can manage without two more games.
Who could Manchester United play against if they don’t win the group?
In the play-off round, the eight teams that finish second in their Europa League group will be seeded and drawn against one of the teams that come from the Champions League.
Barcelona, Juventus, Ajax, Sevilla, Shakhtar Donetsk and Atletico Madrid are among the teams they could face if they finish second.
Barcelona – and transfer target Frenkie de Jong – are among United’s potential opponents if they fail to win the group
Their exact pool of potential opponents will be known at the end of the Champions League group stage on Wednesday.
And if they do?
United go straight to the last 16 if they top the group.
There they are placed and drawn against one of the eight play-off winners, with the return leg at home. They cannot play against anyone from their own country.
Real Betis, Belgium’s Union Saint-Gilloise, Ferencvaros and Freiburg are the teams that have secured a place in the last 16 so far by winning their respective groups.