What is Rishi Sunak’s anti-smoking bill and will it be passed?

Rishi Sunak’s Tobacco and Vaping Bill aims to create Britain’s first smoke-free generation, in a groundbreaking public health intervention.

What is the ban and how would it work?

The tobacco and vaping law ensures that anyone who turns 15 or younger from 2024 will no longer be allowed to buy cigarettes, and aims to make vaping less attractive to children.

The legislation does not ban smoking outright, as anyone who can now legally purchase tobacco will still be able to do so if the bill becomes law. It will make it illegal to sell tobacco products to anyone born after January 1, 2009. The plan was first reported by The Guardian and announced by the Prime Minister in his speech at the Conservative Party conference last year.

It will increase the age at which tobacco sales can take place by one year every year, with the aim of preventing today’s young people from ever taking up smoking.

The legislation not only increases the smoking age every year, but also includes provisions to regulate the display, contents, flavors and packaging of vaping and nicotine products.

Trading standards officers will be able to fine retailers who ignore the new restrictions, with proceeds funding further enforcement.

What are the arguments in favor?

Health leaders, NHS bosses and medical professionals say phasing out smoking will save thousands of lives. Smoking kills about 80,000 people a year.

Ministers say the number of smokers among the 14 to 30 age group could be close to zero by 2040 as a result of the legislation.

Professor Steve Turner, President of the Royal College for Paediatrics and Child Health, said: “By preventing children and young people from becoming addicted to nicotine and tobacco, we are reducing their chances of developing preventable diseases later in life and protecting children from the harm of nicotine addiction.”

The government says creating a “smoke-free generation” could prevent more than 470,000 cases of heart disease, stroke, lung cancer and other diseases by the end of the century.

Government figures show that smoking costs the UK around £17 billion a year, of which £10 billion is due to lost productivity alone. According to the report, these costs are dwarfed by the £10 billion raised through taxes on tobacco products.

And against?

Some Tory MPs have raised concerns, with former Prime Minister Liz Truss saying the plans are “very unconservative” and her predecessor, Boris Johnson, describing the ban as “crazy”.

Truss said earlier this year: “A Conservative government should not be trying to expand the nanny state. It only supports those who want to restrict freedom.”

Kemi Badenoch, the business minister, was the only minister to vote against a second reading of the bill, arguing that the burden of enforcement would fall on private companies and that the bill undermined the principle of equality.

“We should not treat legally competent adults differently in this way, where people born one day apart will have permanently different rights,” she posted on X before the vote.

Other Tory MPs are objecting to the plans, claiming they are unworkable and could lead to other things being banned. Former minister Sir Simon Clarke said: “An enforcement nightmare and a slippery slope – alcohol next?”

How soon will the bill be passed?

A final vote in the Lords is expected to take place in mid-June, after the bill has been read there for the third time, but much needs to happen in the House of Commons first.

Tuesday was the first opportunity for MPs to debate and vote on the bill. It cleared its first Commons hurdle by 383 votes to 67, giving a majority of 316, with the support of the Labor Party.

The committee stage comes later in April, when amendments can be tabled, before being voted on in May and then voted on by MPs on the bill’s third reading.

What is the probability will it get into political trouble?

There was opposition from 57 Conservative MPs and six ministers, including Badenoch, Julia Lopez, Lee Rowley, Alex Burghart, Steve Baker and Andrew Griffith.

The Leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt, was said to have hesitated but ultimately abstained, one of 106 Tory MPs who did not cast a vote. Some of them will have had other reasons for staying away, such as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who was traveling to the International Monetary Fund in Washington.

Tory critics’ best hope of frustrating the bill will now be to overload it with amendments and delay its passage.

The changes are likely to involve an attempt to introduce licensing for vaping retailers or change the age of people affected.

Tory opponents also believe there could be more ideological opposition within the Lords.

The final vote in the Lords is expected to take place in June. While colleagues have blocked Sunak’s flagship deportation plan in Rwanda, they are not expected to ultimately stand in the way of the tobacco bill.

What other countries have tried bans?

A similar law was expected to come into effect in New Zealand in July, but was withdrawn by the country’s new coalition government in February. The world’s strictest anti-tobacco rules would have banned sales to people born after 2009, reduced nicotine levels in smoked tobacco products and reduced the number of tobacco retailers by more than 90%.

Countries with notable smoking restrictions include Mexico, which has a ban on smoking on beaches, parks and some homes.

Portugal aims to be smoke-free by 2040, with plans to ban the sale of tobacco products in bars and cafes. Meanwhile, Canada became the first country to require health warnings to be printed on individual cigarettes.

According to the World Health Organization, more than a quarter of the world’s population is banned from smoking in public spaces.

Of the 74 countries with a smoke-free policy, Ireland was the first country to ban smoking in all indoor workplaces in 2004.

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