What is causing the winter flu crisis in England?

Will the flu cause more problems than usual this year?

Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) suggests flu levels and hospitalizations are higher than this time last year.

According to the latest figures, the overall weekly hospitalization rate for flu increased to 14.09 per 100,000 residents in the week ending December 29, 2024, up from 10.69 per 100,000 the week before and 8.72 per 100,000 the week before.

“I don’t think it helped that the flu vaccine was offered to some groups later this year compared to last year,” said Dr Simon Williams, a behavioral scientist and public health researcher at Swansea University. “However, it is not unprecedented for there to be a spike in flu cases in December: we saw something similar in 2022.”

It was the 2022-2023 season The first flu was widespread since the beginning of the Covid pandemic and was associated with it 14,500 additional deaths – the highest figure since the 2017-2018 season.

Figures from NHS England show that there was an average of 4,469 flu patients in hospital in England per day in the last week of December 2024. While this is down from the same point in 2022, when the figure reached 5,441, there is no sign yet that they have peaked.

Professor Julian Redhead, NHS national clinical director for urgent and urgent care, said: “These latest figures show that the burden of flu had far from subsided before we entered the new year, rocketing to more than 5,000 cases per day in hospital as of 2011. late last week and rising at a very worrying rate.”

What else is behind the pressure from the NHS?

Flu is just one part of what some are calling the “quad-demic” hitting hospitals. As Redhead noted, in addition to flu, there is also ongoing pressure from Covid, while RSV and Norovirus hospital cases are higher than last year.

There is also the ongoing, chronic pressure that the NHS faces, including a lack of available beds.

Sir Andrew Pollard, professor of childhood infection and immunity at the University of Oxford, said: “The latest data suggests that the spread of flu is now likely to be at its peak in the 2024-2025 season, meaning flu pressure will the country will be maximum. the NHS is now.”

Who is most affected by flu?

Flu can be especially serious for older people, the very young, and people with underlying medical conditions.

Although UKHSA data shows that people aged between 5 and 14 are most likely to test positive for flu, it is mainly older people who are treated with the virus in hospital.

This is evident from figures from UKHSAIn the most recent week, hospital admission rates for flu were highest in people aged 85 and over, at 88.38 per 100,000 in the trust area’s population, with a rate of 26.1 per 100,000 for people aged up to four .

What about flu vaccinations?

One possibility is that a lack of protection against flu contributes to the situation in hospitals.

According to the latest UKHSA figures for England, up to December 15, 2024, influenza vaccine uptake among GPs was 37.6% in those under 65 in a clinical risk group, 33.1% in pregnant women, 40.3% in children aged two years, and 41.6% in children aged three years. In contrast, this figure was 73.0% in adults over 65 years of age.

It is difficult to compare uptake across years because the start date for the vaccination program is this winter for most adults was postponed to early October to address the problem of declining protection over time. However, UKHSA has said that, compared to the same week last season, “vaccine uptake is lower for those aged two, slightly lower for those aged three, and higher for pregnant women”.

Nevertheless, the figures suggest that a large number of people at increased risk of flu remain unprotected.

“There are 11 million people over the age of 65, so there are still 2.75 million who have not been vaccinated,” Pollard said. “There is a strong age effect on hospital admission and thus the older adults in this population are more likely to be hospitalized.”

Another potential factor is the effectiveness of the flu vaccine: this can vary from year to year depending on how well the vaccine matches the circulating strain.

Pollard said: “We don’t know the vaccine effectiveness for this season yet because it takes time to gather the information and analyze the data, so that answer will come within weeks. Vaccination remains the cornerstone of protecting individuals and the NHS.”

What else can people do to protect themselves?

Williams said it was important to reduce close contact with others when symptoms strike, and added other helpful actions including wearing a mask in hospitals and investing in an air purifier (Hepa filter).

Prof. Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at UKHSA, also stressed the importance of limiting contact with others, especially vulnerable people, if symptoms develop. “If you have complaints and have to go out, our advice remains that you wear a face mask. Regular hand washing and using tissues and disposing of them in waste bins can reduce the spread of respiratory diseases,” she said.