ATLANTA– With the president Joe Biden end his re-election bid and endorse vice president Kamala HarrisDemocrats must now make a turnaround unprecedented in this late-year election.
Democrats will hold their convention in Chicago from August 19 to 22. What was supposed to be a coronation for Biden will now be an open contest in which nearly 4,700 delegates will be responsible for choosing a new standard-bearer to challenge the Republican Party. Donald Trump in the fall.
The path forward is neither easy nor straightforward, even with Biden backing Harris. There are unanswered questions about logistics, money and political implications.
Biden won every primary and caucus in the state earlier this year, losing only the territory of American Samoa. At least 3,896 delegates had pledged to support him.
Current party rules do not allow Biden to pass them on to another candidate, but politically his endorsement is likely to be influential.
With Biden stepping aside, Democrats are technically starting an open convention. But realistically, his endorsement pushes Democrats into dark territory.
The immediate burden is on Harris to shore up the support of nearly 4,000 delegates from the states, territories and the District of Columbia, plus more than 700 so-called super delegates including party leaders, certain elected officials, and former presidents and vice presidents.
Even before Biden announced his decision, Democrats had floated California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as possible candidates, in addition to Harris. Still, some Democrats publicly, and many privately, argued that it would be a no-brainer to choose the first woman, first black woman and first person of South Asian descent to hold a national office.
Given how important black voters — and black women in particular — were to Biden’s nomination and his choice of Harris as his running mate, it would be risky, to say the least, for Democrats to pass her over in favor of a white candidate. Democrats have already faced historical headwind before Biden withdraws. Newsom and Whitmer, both of whom are white, and every other Democrat would also have to weigh the short-term and long-term benefits of challenging Harris now against preserving goodwill for a future presidential primary.
But whether that is right or wrong, Harris is also not seen as a particularly beloved or authorized vice president. The best scenario for her and the Democrats is to quickly gather support and project a united front. Democrats could even go ahead with their plans for an early virtual vote – a move they had planned to ensure Biden would be elected in Ohio before the general election deadline.
Biden’s campaign recently reported $91 million in cash on hand. Allied Democratic campaign committees put the total he had at his disposal at more than $240 million. Campaign finance experts generally agree that Harris manage all those funds because the campaign was set up in her name and Biden’s. If Democrats nominate someone other than Harris, party accounts could still benefit the nominee, but the Biden-Harris account would have more restrictions. For example, legal experts say it could become an independent political action committee for expenditures, but it could not simply transfer the balance to another nominee.
The vice presidential nomination is always a separate vote at the convention. In normal years, the convention ratifies the nominee. If Harris closes ranks quickly, she can announce her choice and have the delegates ratify it. In a drawn-out fight, however, the vice presidency could become a matter of horse-trading — another throwback to conventions of an earlier era.
In this hyper-partisan era of U.S. presidential elections, any unexpected decision triggers a flood of lawsuits at the state and federal level. And some conservatives have threatened to do so.
State laws, however, generally do not dictate how parties choose their presidential candidates. And some GOP figures — Ohio Gov. Mike De Wijn and governor of Alabama. Kay Ivey – have already worked this year to ensure that their party does not deny Democrats access to the regular ballot box.