As the 2024 election season heats up, Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a close race that could come down to just a few thousand votes in several battleground states.
But with polls saying the race is too close to call, and perhaps the closest in modern history, the question is whether presidential candidates from both major parties will get the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to win. to win the November 5 elections outright.
Each candidate must find a path to victory that inevitably winds through a crucial stage — and currently within the polling margin of error-swing states.
But even then, there is a scenario where the election results in neither candidate gaining the required majority in the Electoral College and could result in a 269-269 tie.
So what then? Well, it’s happened before – albeit not in 200 years!
With polls calling the race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris too close, the question is whether either will get the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to win the Nov. 5 election outright.
In 2020, Joe Biden received 306 electoral votes, while Trump received 232. Polls show Trump could flip some of the six battleground states this fall.
But if Trump flips Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, but the rest of the map remains the same, he still falls short and Kamala Harris wins by exactly 270 electoral votes.
But if Trump takes over four of the swing states, he will completely take over the electoral majority. Whatever happens, it will be close.
If the 2024 election ends in a 269-269 tie, the election would fall into the hands of the House of Representatives.
If this election is decided by the House of Representatives, the conventional wisdom is that Trump could win the presidency, as Republicans control 26 state delegations in the House while Democrats control 22. Another two – Minnesota and North Carolina – are evenly split.
But it would really come down to whether Republicans or Democrats emerge victorious in the congressional races.
The newly elected members of Congress would be sworn in and then participate through their delegations in casting a vote for Trump or Harris.
And since it’s been 200 years since contingent elections have taken place, many questions can be asked.
“The House of Representatives has oversight,” said Casey Burgat, legislative affairs program director at George Washington University.
“Instead of each individual member having a vote, each state votes in blocs,” he explained. ‘Basically there is one vote per state and the majority wins there.’
Former President Donald Trump during a campaign rally on the beach in Wildwood, NJ on May 11
Vice President Kamala Harris outside her residence at the US Naval Observatory on October 23
“The date is probably the biggest unknown there is,” Burgat said. ‘There is no fixed date. We know this must happen before the inauguration date, but the House of Representatives gets to decide when these contingent elections take place.”
He said he suspects the vote will be roll-call, but in modern times it is unclear whether delegations will be able to use electronic voting.
Burgat also noted that, conventional wisdom aside, the reality is that each state has its own rules, so some state delegations may be tied to the candidate who won the state’s Electoral College votes.
He wondered, “Even though Republicans have the majority of that delegation, if the Democrat wins that state electoral college, are they binding them in a contingent election to go as their vote in the electoral college does?”
Either way, it would be decided on a state-by-state basis, and things only get more complicated from there.
In the last “contingent election” – the presidential election of 1824 – the contest split four ways between candidates Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, William Crawford and Henry Clay, meaning that no candidate received the necessary majority of electoral votes to win to win outright.
It was the first and only time that the presidential election had to be decided by the House of Representatives since the ratification of the Twelfth Amendment.
John Quincy Adams was the sixth president of the United States. He served from March 1825 to March 1829. He did not win a majority in the electoral college
President Andrew Jackson won the popular vote and more electoral votes in the 1824 presidential election over John Quincy Adams, but none of the four candidates received a majority, so the election went to the House of Representatives under the 12th Amendment.
It was also the only time that a presidential candidate with the most electoral votes did not win the presidency.
At the time, the country had far fewer states – 24 – and so the Electoral College was also much smaller.
Jackson had 99 electoral votes and John Quincy Adams had the second most votes with 84, but Adams later became the sixth president of the United States.
That’s because the decision went to the House of Representatives during the so-called contingent elections, in which states decided who would become the next president.
Jackson argued that after winning the most votes in the Electoral College and the popular vote, he should become president.
But Adams actively met with members of Congress, including House Speaker Henry Clay, who had finished fourth in the presidential race and won his home state of Kentucky.
Ultimately, Adams was elected president on the House’s first vote, giving him thirteen states to Jackson’s seven. Crawford won four states.
The Kentucky state legislature even instructed its delegation to vote for Jackson, but they chose Adams instead, and after the inauguration, Clay was tapped by President Adams as Secretary of State.
Although several presidents in recent history have won the White House without the popular vote — including Trump in 2016 — they have still managed to secure a majority of electoral votes, meaning the process by which the House makes decisions hasn’t been updated for 200 years. more has been used.
The House elected President John Quincy Adams, despite him not receiving the largest number of electoral votes in the 1824 election
A summary sheet of the 1824 election showing that no candidate won a majority of the electoral votes, sending the election to the House of Representatives. The document shows that Jackson received 99 electoral votes, Adams received 84 votes, Crawford received 41 votes and Clay received 37 votes.
A cartoon from the 1824 election showing a foot race to the White House with candidates John Quincy Adams, William Crawford, and Andrew Jackson
He said he suspects the vote will be roll-call, but in modern times it is unclear whether delegations will be able to use electronic voting.
Burgat also noted that, conventional wisdom aside, the reality is that each state has its own rules, so some state delegations may be tied to the candidate who won the state’s Electoral College votes.
He wondered, “Even though Republicans have the majority of that delegation, if the Democrat wins that state electoral college, are they binding them in a contingent election to go as their vote in the electoral college does?”
Either way, it would be decided on a state-by-state basis, and things only get more complicated from there.