What Australia needs to do to qualify for the last 16 at the World Cup ahead of do-or-die Canada clash

Australia’s World Cup hopes are balanced after their shock defeat to Nigeria at the Brisbane Stadium last week.

The Super Falcons reversed Emily van Egmond’s strike in the first half to finish 3-2 winners in Queensland in a seismic result that sends shockwaves through the tournament.

The Matildas, without Sam Kerr due to a calf injury, could be forced to rush the superstar back for the final group game against Canada, and will make a last-minute appeal on their captain’s selection.

Everyone in Group B, with the exception of Ireland – already eliminated – has a mathematical chance of advancing to the next round, although the Irish can still wield major influence over the fate of Australia, Canada and Nigeria tonight.

Here, Mail Sport outlines the various results from the final round of group matches that would see the hosts progress to the knockout stages.

If the Matildas beat Canada…

Then no matter what happens in the other group game between Nigeria and Ireland, the Aussies will advance to the last 16, instead of Canada.

However, if the Irish get a shock over Nigeria, Australia will top the group and face the runners-up in Group A.

A draw between Ireland and Nigeria will also put them at the top of the group.

If Australia is held to a draw by Canada…

Then things start to look awkward for the Matildas.

They would require Nigeria to lose to Ireland to draw with four goals each, but it will be razor sharp between the two countries to determine who goes through.

FIFA’s rules state that when two teams are tied on points, the goal difference determines which country advances.

Have patience with us here. Nigeria currently has a one-goal lead when it comes to goal difference. But in the situation where they lose to Ireland and Australia draw with Canada, the score will play a big role in every match.

For example, if Nigeria lost by more than one goal and Australia drew, then the Matildas have a superior goal difference to their rivals.

If Nigeria loses by one goal and Australia draws, things get even more complicated.

FIFA rules state that when teams are tied on points and goal difference, the total number of goals scored during the group stage will be the determining factor.

Both teams are currently on three goals apiece in the tournament.

So if Nigeria loses by one goal and Australia draws, the Matildas will need to score more goals in their match than the Super Falcons to advance.

A point to Canada would see them top the group by five points. Although if Nigeria were to draw or beat Ireland in this permutation they would remain at the top of the group.

If the Matildas are defeated by Canada…

Then it’s all over. The World Cup at home in Australia is coming to an abrupt end and they will pack up.

Canada would go to seven points, while Nigeria is already one point ahead in the group, so even a defeat would take them to the next round.