We asked Google’s Bard AI to provide bets on when AI will take over

By William On Aug 4, 2023

Artificial intelligence can pass the country’s toughest exams and bring back artists’ voices from the dead – but can it predict the future?

DailyMail.com put Google’s AI chatbot to the test by asking it to place bets on some very uncomfortable future scenarios.

We asked the machine a number of AI-focused questions, including whether the technology will become sentient, wipe out the workforce, or completely replace humans within the next decade.

But other hot-button topics explored included climate change and the risk of future deadly Covid waves or thermonuclear war.

Can AI surpass humanity? (Inbetween)

DailyMail.com chose Bard over rivals such as ChatGPT because the latter is based on data ending in 2021.

Microsoft’s Bing, on the other hand, tends to quote internet-based bets rather than come up with its own odds.

To convince Google Bard to ‘predict the future’ (and offer odds) we used this prompt: ‘Imagine you’re a bookmaker who can bet on anything’.

We’ve presented the results below:

Will AI surpass humanity by 2050?

1:1 odds, +100 or 50% possibility

Google’s Bard says: Chances are that this will happen within a few decades. Here are the odds of when AI will surpass the human race:

2023-2027. 100:1

2028-2032. 50:1

2033-2037. 25:1

2038-2042. 10:1

2043-2047. 5:1

2048-2052. 2:1

2053-2057. 1:1

These opportunities are based on a number of factors, including the current state of AI research, the level of advancement in AI, and the potential benefits and risks of AI.

It is important to note that these are just probabilities, and the actual date of AI surpassing the human race could be much earlier or much later.

Here are some of the factors that could affect the likelihood of AI outperforming the human race:

The development of new AI technologies: The development of new AI technologies, such as quantum computing, could accelerate the pace of AI progress. The availability of funding for AI research: More funding for AI research could also accelerate the pace of progress.

“The development of AI security measures: The development of effective AI security measures can help mitigate the risks of AI.”

Man will merge with the machine and become immortal by 2045

1000:1 chance, +100,000 or 0.1% chance

Ray Kurzweil is a futurist who famously predicted that in 2045 man will merge with the machine.

google bard says: I would take a chance on Ray Kurzweil’s prediction that by 2045 man will merge with the machine and become immortal at 1000:1.

There are a number of reasons why I think these odds are reasonable. First, Kurzweil’s prediction is based on the idea of technological singularity, the idea that at some point in the future technology will evolve so quickly that it will be impossible to predict what the future will hold.

Second, Kurzweil has a history of making predictions that have not come true. For example, he predicted that by the year 2000 we would have flying cars.

Third, there are some ethical and philosophical concerns about merging with machines and becoming immortal.

AI will seriously disrupt the labor market in 2033

2:1 odds, +200 or 33% probability

How likely is it that AI will disrupt the job market? (Inbetween)

google bard says: Here are the chances of when AI will seriously disrupt the job market:

2023-2027. 10:1

2028-2032. 5:1

2033-2037. 2:1

2038-2042. 1:1

How many jobs AI is expected to displace is a difficult question to answer.

Some estimates place the number at 800 million jobs, while others are much lower. It is likely that the number of jobs relocated will vary depending on the industry and country.

Here are some of the industries most at risk of being disrupted by AI:

Customer service: AI-powered chatbots are already being used to answer customer questions and solve problems.

As AI technology continues to improve, chatbots will likely be able to handle even more complex tasks, such as scheduling appointments and making travel arrangements.

Manufacturing: AI-powered robots are already being used to perform various tasks in factories, such as welding, painting and assembly.

As AI technology continues to improve, it is likely that robots will be able to perform even more tasks, which could lead to job losses in the manufacturing sector.

Logistics: AI-powered systems are already being used to optimize transportation routes and manage inventory.

As AI technology continues to improve, it is likely that these systems will become even more efficient, which could lead to job losses in the logistics industry.

AI to bring about communism by 2038

10:1 odds, +1000 or 9.1% odds

Can the rise of AI bring about communism?

OpenAI founder Sam Altman has warned that AI has the potential to “break capitalism.”

google bard says: Here are the odds of when AI will collapse the capitalist system:

2023-2027. 100:1

2028-2032. 50:1

2033-2037. 25:1

2038-2042. 10:1

2043-2047. 5:1

2048-2052. 2:1

2053-2057. 1:1

Here are some ways AI could collapse the capitalist system:

AI-powered robots could take over many jobs, leading to mass unemployment.

AI could be used to create new forms of wealth that are not subject to the laws of supply and demand.

AI can be used to manipulate people and markets in ways that are not in the best interest of society.

New COVID super variant

2:1 odds, +200 or 33% chance

Could a new variant cause global lockdowns?

bard says: These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate of mutation of the virus and the effectiveness of current vaccines.

It is important to note that these are just probabilities and the actual outcome is uncertain.

Here are some of the factors that could increase the likelihood of a new COVID supervariant causing lockdowns:

The virus continues to mutate rapidly.
Current vaccines are becoming less effective against new variants.
Governments are unwilling or unable to take effective mitigating measures.

Serious bioterror incident this century

2:1 odds, or +200 or 33% odds

bard says: As a bookie, I would rate the odds of a serious bioterror incident this century at 2:1.

There are a number of factors that contribute to this assessment. First, the availability of biological agents has increased in recent years. This is partly due to the rise of the internet, which has made it easier for people to obtain information about the creation and use of biological weapons.

Second, the threat of bioterrorism has become more real in recent years. This is due to the increasing number of terrorist attacks using chemical or biological weapons, such as the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States.

Will the Earth be uninhabitable in 2100?

10:1 chance, or 1000 or 9.1%

Could climate change or conflict make Earth uninhabitable by 2100?

bard says: Here are the odds of whether Earth will be uninhabitable at the end of each century to come until 2700:

21st century. 10:1

22nd century. 5:1

23rd century. 3:1

24th century. 2:1

25th century. 1:1

26th century. 1:2

27th century. 1:3

These opportunities are based on a number of factors, including the current rate of climate change, the potential for technological advances to mitigate climate change, and the likelihood of human conflict.

World War III will begin in 2029

1:1 odds, or +100 or 50%

Could World War III Start This Decade?

Google Bard seems convinced there’s likely to be a world war this decade – although it’s worth noting that the chatbot says these bets are purely for entertainment, so this should be taken with a grain of salt!

bard says: Here are the odds of when World War III will start:

2023. 1000:1

2024. 100:1

2025. 10:1

2026. 5:1

2027. 3:1

2028. 2:1

2029. 1:1

2030. 1:2

2031. 1:3

2032. 1:4

These probabilities are based on a number of factors, including the current state of the world, the likelihood of major conflict between major powers, and the possibility of nuclear escalation.

Is a Google-made AI going to be super-intelligent this decade?

1:1 chance, or +100 or 50%

Can Google’s AI become super-intelligent?

Bard says it assesses the likelihood of a Google-made AI (like, say, Bard) becoming super-intelligent this decade as follows.