Washington state’s landmark climate law hangs in the balance in November

SEATTLE — A landmark law that will force companies in Washington state to reduce their carbon emissions while raising billions of dollars for climate programs could be repealed by voters this fall, less than two years after it went into effect.

The Climate Commitment Act, one of the most progressive climate policies ever passed by a state legislature, is under fire from conservatives, who say it has driven up energy and gas costs in Washington, which currently has the third-highest gas prices in the country has. . The law aims to reduce emissions to almost half of 1990 levels by 2030.

It requires companies that produce at least 25,000 tonnes (27,557 US tons) of carbon dioxide, or the equivalent in other greenhouse gases including methane, to pay for the right to do so by purchasing ’emission allowances’. One allowance is equivalent to 1 metric ton (1.1 US tons) of greenhouse gas pollution and every year the number of allowances available for purchase decreases, theoretically forcing companies to find ways to reduce emissions.

Supporters of the policy say not only that a repeal will not guarantee lower costs, but that billions of dollars in state revenues are at stake for years to come. Many programs are already funded or will soon be funded with money from polluting companies, including projects in air quality, fish habitat, wildfire prevention and clean energy.

“The big policy goal is the next level of combating climate change and reducing carbon emissions,” said Todd Donovan, a professor of political science at Western Washington University. “But you get within 30,000 feet of voters and it’s, ‘How does this affect my gas taxes?’”

The group behind the repeal, Let’s Go Washington, says the carbon pricing program has increased gasoline costs for consumers by 43 to 53 cents per gallon, citing the conservative think tank Washington Policy Center.

For months, Let’s Go Washington, which is funded primarily by hedge fund executive Brian Heywood, has held more than a dozen events at gas stations to speak out against what it calls the “hidden gas tax.” Last month at a station in Vancouver, southwest Washington, the group lowered gas prices by $1 for two hours by subsidizing the difference to show what reduced prices would look like.

“It makes everything more expensive because everything you buy is delivered by truck to the store or to your door,” Let’s Go Washington spokesperson Hallie Balch said in a video about the initiative last month.

The average price at the pump for regular gas has risen to $5.13 per gallon since the auctions started in February 2023, but has since fallen and stood at $4.05 this month, according to GasBuddy. The state’s all-time high of $5.54 came just months before the auctions began.

Advocates for keeping carbon pricing in place have highlighted the many programs it funds that could disappear if repeal succeeds, including those to help Native American tribes responding to climate change, for communities to build clean energy projects and for tackling air pollution.

Without the program, the Office of Financial Management estimates, there would be a loss of $758 million in state revenue in the next budget year and $3.1 billion in the following four years. During this year’s legislative session, state lawmakers a budget approved through fiscal year 2025 with dozens of programs funded by carbon pricing revenues, with delayed start dates and provisions that would not take effect if that disappears.

Washington was the second state after California to launch this type of program. It started with aggressive emissions targets of a 7% annual reduction, which would be relaxed from 2031. Repealing it would derail plans to connect Washington’s carbon market with others and could be a blow to the nation’s efforts to help other states launch similar programs.

Behind the movement to keep carbon pricing in place is a diverse coalition, including most of Washington’s federally recognized tribes, some of the biggest tech giants, national environmental groups, TV personality and science advocate Bill Nye of “Bill Nye the Science Guy” and even at least one fossil fuel company. BP America, which was allowed to participate in the auctions, contributed more than $2 million to the campaign and said it supported the measure when it passed and wants it to remain intact.

The fuel giant’s support is likely due to the fact that enforcing the policy would provide regulatory certainty on which it can plan, said Aseem Prakash, a political science professor and founding director of the University of Washington’s Center for Environmental Politics.

Supporters of the bill have raised more than $16 million, far more than the $7 million Let’s Go Washington raised to spend on this and six other initiatives.

The repeal side has submitted more than 400,000 signatures to get Initiative 2117 on the November ballot.