Warning signs for Trump as poll reveals his hush money conviction could impact a critical group of voters that will decide the election

Details from an investigation into Donald Trump’s conviction in the Stormy Daniels case are raising warning signs for the former president among a key swath of independent voters crucial to his bid to retake the White House.

A majority of Independents said wholeheartedly in a new one Reuters/Ipsos investigation that Trump was guilty of falsifying company data in the hush money case – the accusations that Trump had committed according to a jury.

That’s the starting point for a series of reviews in which independents give their views on how much the convictions matter and whether it will influence their vote.

The results come even as Trump campaigns across the country, calling the case against him “rigged,” while the Joe Biden campaign has stepped up its public attacks on Trump, who Biden now regularly labels a “convicted felon.”

There is also a substantial share — about a fifth of the electorate — who say Trump’s beliefs make them less likely to support the former president. Twenty-two percent of Americans said it made them less likely to support Trump and said his beliefs were important to their vote.

Another group of 6 percent called the verdict important, but said it made them more likely to support Trump.

In a close election, about a fifth of Americans and about a fifth of independents saying they are less likely to support Trump after the verdict could play a key role.

A majority of 57 percent of independents said they understood the details of the case well or somewhat well, indicating they had followed the trial, with impressive testimony from porn star and former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen.

Ninety-two percent of Democrats said Trump was guilty, compared to 16 percent of Republicans.

And 23 percent of independents said the verdict made them less likely to support Trump, calling his conviction “very important.”

That’s a substantial group of voters who could make for a close election if their positions hold.

An ongoing concern for Trump’s camp is whether some of the “never Trump” Republicans might abandon former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. The poll also shows that a small group of Republicans did not like what they saw during the trial.

While 42 percent of Republicans said Trump’s guilty conviction made them do it more likely to support the former president, 9 percent say this makes them less supportive. Another 9 percent said they didn’t know.

Thirty percent of independents called Trump’s conviction very or somewhat important, while 31 percent of Republicans called it very or somewhat important, compared to 49 percent of Democrats.

Twenty-six percent of independents called it “very important” to “how I vote,” while another 9 percent called it “somewhat important.”

Responses to the survey also show that some attacks on the courts and prosecutors have stuck with his supporters.

President Joe Biden called Trump a “convicted felon” during a fundraiser Tuesday night

Republicans believe by a 63-14 margin that President Biden was directly involved in the decision to indict Trump. But among independents, only 23 percent agree, compared to 42 percent who say Biden was not involved.

And independents surveyed want Trump to arrive on time for his felony conviction. A total of 42 percent say he should be jailed, with 21 percent saying he should be put on probation and 17 percent saying he should pay a financial penalty.

Seventy-three percent of Democrats want Trump jailed, but only 5 percent of Republicans want that. But even among Republicans, 17 percent want Trump to receive probation and 24 percent say he should only pay a fine, while a narrow majority of 51 percent say he should receive no punishment.