WASHINGTON — In the run-up to the November election, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a decisive lead with the public on economic issues, making an issue that was once a clear Trump asset a political leap into the unknown.
About 4 in 10 registered voters say Republican Trump would do a better job on the economy, while a similar number say that about the Democratic vice president, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs ResearchAbout 1 in 10 voters trust neither candidate, and a similar share has equal confidence in them.
The finding is a warning sign for Trump, who has tried to link Harris to President Joe Biden’s economic record. The new poll suggests Harris may be escaping some of the president’s baggage on the issue, undermining one of Trump’s biggest advantages.
The economy has long been a weak point for Biden: a separate AP-NORC poll in late JuneBefore Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump, about 6 in 10 Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy. Earlier this year, Americans were much more likely to say Trump’s presidency helped the country on cost of living and job creation, compared to Biden’s.
The new poll shows that about 8 in 10 voters consider the economy to be one of the most important issues when choosing which candidate to support, outpacing other key issues such as health care and crime.
The aftermath of inflation to rise in 2022 to a 40-year high has permeated this year’s presidential election. Buyers are angry about their grocery bills. Higher interest rates are financially squeezing home and motor vehicle buyers. All of that seems to matter more to the public than the low unemployment rate of 4.2% and profits on the stock market.
According to the AP-NORC poll, only about a third of voters say the state of the national economy is somewhat or very good, though they are more optimistic about their own situation, with about 6 in 10 voters saying their household finances are somewhat or very good. Both numbers have held steady over the year, despite falling inflation.
The candidates have clashing ideas about how best to fix the economy, presenting voters with a stark choice that could highlight how partisan identity increasingly shapes views on the economy and policy. But neither campaign has fully explained how its plans would be implemented. Harris insists her plans would be fully funded and not add to the deficit, while Trump’s team is assuming — contrary to most economic models — that growth will be high enough to offset the costs.
Mark Carlough, 33, who works in medical records in Philadelphia, plans to vote for Harris, saying he thinks Trump’s proposed tariffs would hurt the most consumers.
“The tariffs would be terrible for the economy,” he said.
Richard Tunnell, 32, of Huntsville, Texas, plans to vote for Trump, just as he did in 2020. He’s not sure the Republican has an edge over Harris on economic issues, but he noted that Trump has been a great businessman who remains one of the “richest men on the planet” even after filing for bankruptcy multiple times.
“I believe this country needs someone to stick their hand in it and use it like a game of Monopoly, and that person is Donald Trump,” said Tunnell, a disabled war veteran.
Chantelle Breaux, 38, a stay-at-home mom from Lafayette, Louisiana, doesn’t think either candidate has much to offer on the economic front. She doesn’t plan to vote unless a candidate she likes better signs up.
“Kamala wants to put a Band-Aid on a place where there needs to be a major operation in this economy,” Breaux said. “Trump wants to run the country like it’s a business, but it’s not a business that’s going to support all the people.”
Former President Trump argued that growth would come from tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, leading to more investment, while a universal tariff of as much as 20% would direct that investment toward building American factories.
Harris has campaigned on more middle-class benefits, funded by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, saying they would help contain costs and spur growth. Her team has warned that Trump’s tariffs would raise prices and exacerbate underlying inflation problems.
The economy is one of many issues that are shaping public sentiment as campaigns try to mobilize voters. More than half of voters said health care was a top priority, while about half said the same about crime, immigration, abortion policy and gun policy. Only about a third named climate change as a top issue for their vote, and about a quarter said the same about the war between Israel and Hamas.
Trump and Harris are evenly matched in the poll over who would best handle crime and the war in Gaza. But the issues are quickly splintering in ways that reflect the different priorities of Republicans and Democrats.
Trump has an edge over Harris, whom voters trust to better handle immigration. This issue has been a problem for Biden, too: illegal immigration and border crossings at the U.S. border with Mexico have been a challenge for much of his administration. Republicans likely care more about immigration, the issue where Trump clearly has the upper hand.
Harris outperforms Trump on issues that Democrats care about, such as gun policy, health care, abortion policy and climate change.
Rosamaria Nunez, a 68-year-old retiree from San Antonio, Texas, called gun violence the biggest problem facing the country. She said it became personal when her grandson called to pick her up last year because of a school closure.
Nunez said she plans to vote for Harris, saying, “First of all, she’s a gun owner, so she can relate to the safety issue. She seems more in tune with a real person than Trump is.”
Overall, voters see high stakes in the impact of the presidential election on the future of the country, the economy, and the future of democracy in the U.S., but they are less likely to think the election will have an impact on them personally. About 8 in 10 voters say the election will have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of impact on the future of the country. About three-quarters say the election will have a similar impact on the country’s economy and the future of democracy in the U.S.
In contrast, half of voters say the election will have at least “a great deal” of impact on them personally.
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The poll of 1,771 registered voters was conducted Sept. 12-16, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.