Bogotá Colombia – The conference on the political crisis in Venezuela, convened this week by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, had an ambitious goal: to restart stalled talks between the Venezuelan government and the opposition ahead of next year’s presidential election.
But after Tuesday’s five-hour meeting in Bogota, diplomats from 19 countries and the European Union have struggled to come up with a concrete plan to get both sides back to the table, political analysts said, raising questions about what comes next.
“The points of agreement more or less represent where the international community was before the conference,” Carolina Jimenez, president of the Washington Office on Latin America think tank, told Al Jazeera of the outcome of the talks.
The government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which oversaw the 2018 presidential election widely viewed as illegitimate, has been accused of suppressing opposition votes — a campaign some fear could be crushed before the 2024 election. stepped up.
Meanwhile, the international community and the Venezuelan opposition agree that a free and fair vote could help resolve the crisis in the country, which has seen a mass exodus amid political instability and socio-economic hardship.
But this week’s summit failed to outline a clear way to restart talks in Mexico, which have been stalled since late last year. Instead, points were reiterated that had already been agreed: the need to hold free elections and resume negotiations, and the relaxation of sanctions against Venezuela.
“Obviously it was very difficult that something as complex as the Venezuelan crisis could be resolved in five hours,” Jimenez said.
The Maduro government is not demanding
The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, the mass exodus of more than seven million migrants and refugees from Venezuela and a political shift to the left in Latin America have put pressure on the international community to stop the talks that have been held in Mexico since then. to support. 2021.
Analysts said the conference in Colombia’s capital, to which neither the Venezuelan government nor the opposition were invited, bolstered that support but also showed that a quick resolution to the Venezuelan crisis is unlikely.
“None of this is not going to be resolved soon,” said Ligia Bolivar, an analyst with the human rights organization AlertaVenezuela. “It’s a process.”
While observers praised the United States’ decision to send a high-level delegation, as well as President Petro’s new role in advancing dialogue, Maduro’s response to the conference dashed any expectations of a speedy resumption of negotiations .
In a statement released on Tuesday by the Venezuelan foreign ministry, the Maduro government outlines its terms for resuming talks, including the release of Venezuelan diplomat Alex Saab, who is imprisoned in the US on money laundering charges, and the creation of a billion-dollar humanitarian fund agreed in the latest round of political talks.
Both sides agreed in November to release $3 billion in foreign banks to create a United Nations-administered fund that would provide humanitarian aid to impoverished Venezuelans and restore the country’s crumbling energy grid.
However, it’s still unclear when the funds will be available, and analysts have said releasing the assets could take some time.
Meanwhile, the State Department statement omitted any mention of upcoming elections, which experts say seemed to show the Maduro government’s reluctance to negotiate fair voting conditions.
“Negotiating space is still limited,” Bolivar told Al Jazeera. “She [the government] questions and questions, but have not accepted the opportunity to talk about concessions.
Fragmented opposition
Luis Salamanca, a political science professor at the Central University of Venezuela in the capital Caracas, attributed the reluctance to the possibility of Maduro losing in the event of fair elections.
“They don’t want to negotiate because they don’t want to risk being stripped of power,” Salamanca told Al Jazeera.
In 2018, Maduro won the presidency after barring opposition members from running. When the legislature determined that the election was illegal, Juan Guiado, then a leading legislator, proclaimed himself interim president.
The international community broadly supported Guiado, recognized the opposition leader as the rightful head of state, cut ties with Maduro and imposed new sanctions.
But while Maduro remained in power, the opposition fragmented. In December, the opposition voted to dissolve the interim government led by Guiado as some countries in the region, such as Colombia and Peru, have restored diplomatic ties with Maduro.
In a sign of his waning power, Guiado crossed into Colombia on Monday to protest the Bogota summit and the lifting of sanctions, but was quickly escorted to the airport by Colombian officials, where the opposition figure boarded a plane to Florida.
That change in Venezuela’s international approach has given Maduro a second wind and leverage in the negotiations in Mexico, said Ronal Rodriguez, a researcher at Rosario University’s Venezuela Observatory in Bogota.
“Maduro has defeated the ‘maximum pressure’ strategy led by the United States and Colombia [under former right-wing President Ivan Duque]and Brazil, and feels he has favorable terms to help him negotiate,” Rodriguez told Al Jazeera.
Guiado’s protest action also revealed significant disagreements within the opposition.
One side believed that talks and lifting sanctions against Venezuela will only help make Maduro stronger, while the other, backed by the international community, considered lifting sanctions – in exchange for fair elections – as part of a solution to the political crisis.
‘A chance’
Meanwhile, amid continued division over the prospect of returning to negotiations, the opposition has taken steps to unite ahead of next year’s election, planning an October primary that will see Maduro’s main challenger would determine.
Some contenders, such as Henrique Capriles and Guiado, have decided to run in the primaries despite being disqualified from running in elections. If elected, they would be barred from registering as a presidential candidate by the National Electoral Council.
According to Jimenez of the Washington Office on Latin America, going ahead with the presidential election without the rightful primary winner, as well as a range of other guarantees, could further destabilize the country.
While the exact terms of a level playing field are yet to be determined by the negotiators, the European Union proposed 23 reforms after observing Venezuela’s 2021 regional elections.
These recommendations (pdf), which were mentioned at the Bogota Conference, include greater independence for Venezuela’s Supreme Court and balanced state media coverage of election campaigns.
“If the election is not held with the guarantees we would like to see, we could be talking about another six-year term in office, mired in deep political conflict,” Jimenez said. “We must fight to make this election an opportunity and not a continuation of the crisis.”