Vancouver, Vegas or … Dakar? Ranking the candidates for NBA expansion cities

TThe NBA boasts the most talent it has ever had. There are still all-time greats who dominate (LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant) and unique rookies (Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama). The league has 30 teams and only a few (Detroit, Washington, Portland) don't have an All-Star or a surefire future.

In short: the NBA is robust. That also makes it the perfect time for expansion, something NBA Commissioner Adam Silver says says the league plans to investigate when current media rights deals end in 2025. But what would the competition look like, and what are the best options? The first phase of expansion would likely be for two more teams, but a few more in subsequent years is not out of the question.

With global basketball competitions booming and the 2024 Paris Olympics approaching, there's a lot to think about. So let's take a look at a selection (and note that the list is not exhaustive – this is a mix of moonshots, possible and likely possibilities) going from least to most likely.

10) Dakar, Senegal

The league has already established the NBA Academy Africa a few hours away in Saly, and the facility will continue to grow its footprint in the country and perhaps on the continent. The NBA also created the Basketball Africa League and players like Joel Embiid and Hakeem Olajuwon have raised the profile of the game on the continent. But while an African franchise is still decades away at best, the NBA, which likes to think of itself as a global enterprise, should at least consider establishing a team in Africa. Due to its location in West Africa, Dakar is also closer to the United States than cities like Nairobi or Cape Town. Other global wildcards include Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro and Beijing, which have a huge NBA fan base but would be difficult due to political or logistical challenges.

Chance of franchise: 0% in the near future. But with Africa's young population and the NBA's greater foothold, there could be a team on the continent by the end of the century.

9) Nashville, Tenn

Nashville has been discussed for a long time by those in the NBA's inner circles. If a city already has a professional hockey arena, like Nashville, the move can be easily made. The problem for Music City, however, is that the population isn't particularly large and the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 220 miles away, probably wouldn't be happy about losing market share in the Volunteer State.

Chance of franchise: 5%. It won't happen in the next round of expansion, but Nashville should remain hopeful as it is one of the few North American cities that could see a team sooner rather than later.

8) Madrid, Spain

There are many great basketball leagues in Europe. What started in Italy has grown to include areas such as Turkey, the Balkans, Greece, Russia and Spain. And while Real Madrid's basketball team may not be as strong as its soccer team, it competes in the strongest leagues outside of North America. The team also employs future NBA stars such as Luka Dončić, Dražen Petrović and Serge Ibaka.

Franchise opportunity: 5%. Expansion outside North America seems unlikely in the short term: the time difference would pose problems and the influence of the powerful Real Madrid organization could help keep the NBA out of its backyard. But European expansion must remain on the minds of league officials and while football will always be king in Spain, basketball has a strong following.

7)Louisville, Kentucky

Kentucky loves hoops, whether you're talking about the University of Kentucky at Lexington or the University of Louisville. The city was also home to the ABA's Kentucky Colonels in the 1960s and 1970s. A new team in the state would fill a major local need. But the area just doesn't seem populated enough to support a franchise.

Chance of franchise: 10%. Like Nashville, this is unlikely to happen anytime soon. But since there are so few other American options (Omaha? Jacksonville?) and the region is basketball crazy, it's not impossible.

6) Paris, France

This is where things get really interesting. Paris has a huge population and a love affair with basketball. France also boasts some great NBA players, from Hall of Famer Tony Parker to the league's next big star, Victor Wembanyama, who would make great ambassadors. The city will do so in 2024 hosting real NBA games, as well as the Olympics, where some of basketball's biggest names will be in attendance. With popularity increasing and the league always looking to expand, we wouldn't be surprised if Paris was on the shortest shortlist for new locations.

Chance of a franchise: 20% within the next decade. Time zones and travel would be the biggest hurdles. But if a team showed up in Paris And Madrid, and perhaps another one or two in European cities soon after, would give the league a potential new European division and viable multi-city road trips abroad. Heck, the distance from Paris to New York City isn't much longer than the Big Apple to LA.

5) Vancouver, British Columbia

The city was once home to an NBA franchise, the Grizzlies, before the team moved to Memphis in 2001. And if another city (Seattle) on this list gets a team, it would set up a Pacific corridor from Vancouver to Portland, which the NBA would probably fancy. Vancouver is a favorite city among NBA playersthe Raptors have shown that a team outside the US can win the title, that there are some brilliant Canadian players in the league, and that any team can share an arena with the NHL's Vancouver Canucks. It seems like a win-win situation.

Chance of franchise: 25% chance in the next 10 years. Doing so would give Canada a second team, create a Cascadian hub, and right the wrong of losing to the Grizzlies at the turn of the century. That's a lot of good stuff.

4) Montreal, Quebec

Silver recently mentioned Montreal as an opportunity for league expansion, which raised alarm bells in places like Seattle and Las Vegas. Still, the city makes sense. It has a professional hockey arena, a large population and is relatively close to NBA cities like Toronto, Detroit and New York. While Montreal seems less likely than the other cities below, it should be watched closely because Silver mentioned it.

Chance of franchise: 30% chance in the next 10 years. Silver said it, so it could happen. Montreal is a big, beautiful city full of culture. Why not bring the NBA to the otherwise hockey-mad city and try to make some progress?

3) Mexico City, Mexico

Now we get to the real meat. Mexico City has hosted preseason and regular season matches since the 1990s. It already has a popular G-League team, there's a huge sports-mad population and, like Canada, there wouldn't be the time zone issues that come with a team in Africa or Europe. Some officials have expressed concerns player safety and the city's high altitude (over 2,000 meters), but a team in Mexico, along with the US and Canada, would be very attractive (and something its rival, the NFL, cannot say).

50% chance of a franchise in the next ten years. The NBA has clearly given the idea some serious thought. Mexico City just needs to prove it can handle a team – and is doing just that with the G-League Capitanes.

2) Seattle, Washington

Since the Seattle SuperSonics left in 2007, the city has been yearning for the team's return. If you ask the residents, they will tell you the franchise was stolen by Oklahoma City and former NBA commissioner David Stern. Even today, Seattleites like Jamal Crawford keep talking about Seattle needing its team back. The franchise won a championship in 1979 and boasts famous alumni such as Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp and Jack Sikma.

Franchise opportunity: 95% in the coming years. All the tea leaves indicate the NBA will make a move. And the city, with its tech money and rabid fan base, is as ready for it as anyone.

1) Las Vegas, Nevada

Las Vegas became a real possibility for expansion when the NBA began partnering with several betting shops. Not to mention that LeBron James has stated that he wants to one day own a team in Sin City. Vegas is already home to the NHL's Golden Knights, the NFL's Raiders, a Formula 1 race, and soon, MLB's athletics. It also hosts the NBA Summer League, the final rounds of the In Season Tournament and of course the reigning WNBA Champion Aces. So it seems like only a matter of time before the city gets an NBA team — most of them probably by 2025if you believe the rumors.

Chance of franchise: 98%. This will almost certainly happen in the coming years. There's a reason why Vegas got a summer league and a seasonal tournament. It could also share an arena with the Golden Knights.