The Congressional Budget Office has lowered its 30-year U.S. population forecasts to 372 million residents, down 2.8% from last year, citing declining birth rates and lower expected immigration.
The budget office projected last year that the United States would be home to 383 million people in 30 years, but lowered that number by 11 million residents in projections released this week. The US had an estimate 341 million inhabitants on New Year’s Day and is expected to grow to 350 million people by the end of the year.
Population growth will slow down over the next thirty years. Over the next decade, the annual growth rate in the United States will average 0.4%, but then it will slow to 0.1% on average between 2036 and 2055, the budget office said.
The overall annual growth rate over the next thirty years, 0.2%, is expected to be less than a quarter of what it was between 1975 and 2024.
Without immigration, the U.S. population will shrink starting in 2033 in part “because fertility rates are expected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself,” according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Last year’s lowered forecasts were the result of a decline in expected fertility rates over 30 years, from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 births per woman, and less immigration due to a order last June that temporarily suspends asylum processing at the border when U.S. officials believe they are overwhelmed, the budget office said. Replacement occurs at a rate of 2.1 births per woman.
The Congressional Budget Office releases population projections each year to guide decisions about federal budgets and the economy, and to estimate payroll taxes and Social Security benefits.
The Congressional Budget Office projections are higher than the one made by the US Census Bureau. The Census Bureau counts locals, while CBO projects include locals as well as U.S. citizens and others living abroad who qualify for these benefits. The CBO projections also predict higher immigration.
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