LOS ANGELES — California’s reputation as a hotbed of progressive politics will be tested in a series of contests in the U.S. House of Representatives that are expected to once again determine which party controls the chamber next year.
Despite being a liberal protectorate, both parties view races in the nation’s most populous state as crucial battlegrounds, pumping millions of dollars into campaigns stretching from the beaches of San Diego and Orange County to the almond orchards and vineyards of the Central Valley. farm belt.
Two years ago, the state played a crucial role in securing the gavel for Republicans. Now just a handful of votes separate the rival parties in the House of Representatives, with 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies.
California has 52 seats in the House of Representatives – more than any other state – and 10 are up for election. About half of these are considered toss-ups. Democrats dominate California, holding every statewide office and outnumbering registered Republicans by a almost 2 to 1 statewide margin. But Republicans maintain their strengths took four House seats in 2020.
The most competitive contests are concentrated in Republican-held districts carried by Joe Biden in 2020. Overall, Republicans hold just 12 of the state’s House seats.
On paper, at least, Democrats have more than enough registered voters to capture a cluster of Republican-held districts. The lingering question, as in the past, is: Will they vote?
Democrats will likely benefit from higher turnout in a presidential election year with a vice president Kamala Harrisa former California U.S. Senator and Attorney General, who is in charge. But how that will play out in closely divided swing districts is less clear.
Democrats warn about former president Donald Trump’s possible return to Washington, threats to abortion rights and gun violence. Republicans blame Democrats for crime, a porous southern border, high taxes and inflation that is straining household budgets.
Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking Democrat of the House of Representatives who lives in Redlands, east of Los Angeles, has predicted that the decisive battle for the chamber “will go through California.”
Democrats keep coming for Rep. Mike Garcia.
The last Republican congressman anchored in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Garcia, a former naval pilot who flew more than thirty combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom, has demonstrated a surprising ability to beat the odds in a district with an eleven-point Democratic registration advantage. He is being challenged by Democrat George Whitesides, former NASA chief of staff.
The once conservative 27th District runs through suburbs and high desert north of Los Angeles. Garcia, a supporter of former President Donald Trump with a conservative voting record, was first elected against California’s liberal-leaning government. “I don’t want my country to turn into what my state has become,” he said at the time.
White sideswho is also a former CEO of Virgin Galactic, says he would use his business experience to solve problems. He has highlighted Garcia’s opposition to abortion rights and labeled him an extremist.
Garcia issued a statement to clarify his position on the issue, saying, “I oppose a national abortion ban — California’s abortion law remains the law — and I support exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.”
National Republicans have taken out ads portraying Whitesides as soft on crime. Garcia, like other Republican candidates, has attacked his rival and other Democrats on inflation and taxes.
Garcia’s military service is an asset in a district home to the defense industry and popular with Los Angeles veterans, police officers and firefighters. As the son of a Mexican immigrant father, his Spanish surname is also beneficial in a district with a significant Latino population.
Orange County was once considered conservative hallowed ground, where white suburban homeowners delivered winning margins to Republicans year after year. It is considered a foundation of the Reagan Revolution. But the county, located southeast of Los Angeles, has become more demographically diverse and democratic over time, as has much of the state.
The 47th District seat, which includes Huntington Beach and other famous surfing beaches, is held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive favorite in 2022 narrowly defeated former Republican lawmaker Scott Baugh. Porter, known for criticizing CEOs during hearings on Capitol Hill, stepped aside to run for U.S. Senate but lost in the primaries. Baugh is making another bid to win the seat, this time against Democratic lawmaker Dave Min.
National Republicans call the seat a top target.
Given the stakes in the closely divided district, the battle was particularly rancorous. Min ads call Baugh a “MAGA extremist” who would endanger abortion rights. Baugh says Min’s “extremely liberal views” are not in line with the district.
Representative Ken Calvert is the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation, having first been elected in 1992. Two years ago he held back Democrat and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins by about 5 percentage points, and Rollins is back for another try.
The 41st District is about evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. The race is a priority for both parties: Porter and former U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer were among the credentialed Democrats who raised money for Rollins.
National Republicans have called Rollins an “extreme liberal.” Calvert brings the benefits of his incumbency, but his conservative credentials and Trump support could lead to problems in a district with many transplants from Los Angeles and the city of Palm Springs, which has a large concentration of LGBTQ+ voters. Rollins is gay.
Rollins says it’s time for new leadership and calls Calvert an extremist whose views don’t align with the district.
By the numbers, the Central Valley’s 22nd District should be a Democratic stronghold. The party has a fourteen-point lead over the Republicans. But GOP Rep. David Valadao has done just that kept a grip still on the chair.
He held the district from 2013 to January 2019, losing the seat for one term and then winning it back in a 2020 rematch with Democrat TJ Cox. Democrat Rudy Salas is trying to claim the seat this year after losing to Valadao in 2022.
In a region sometimes called America’s salad bowl because of its vast agricultural production, Valadao has emphasized his efforts to secure more water for farmers and his willingness to work across the aisle, while portraying Salas as a Democrat who pays taxes and spends. “David has ignored partisan bickering and demonstrated his commitment to local priorities,” the Valadao campaign said in a fundraising pitch.
Salas, who is considered a moderate, has portrayed Valadao as a Trump follower masquerading as a centrist. In Congress, he says, he will fight for lower drug prices, expanded health care and clean drinking water, which remains a chronic problem in some rural communities.
In the 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte faces Democrat Adam Gray he defeated two years ago by one of the narrowest margins in the country, 564 votes. Duarte is often cited as one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House of Representatives, given that narrow victory.
Another factor is the Democratic tilt of 13th, which is about 11 points higher than registered Republicans. There is also a large Latino population, similar to other Central Valley districts, but the most likely voters statewide are white, older, more affluent homeowners. Working-class voters, including many Latinos, are less consistent in their efforts to get to the polls.
Both candidates have emphasized bipartisan credentials.
Duarte, a businessman and major grape and almond farmer, says his priorities include reducing inflation and crime and securing an adequate water supply for farmers, an ongoing problem in the valley.
Gray, a former lawmaker, has criticized the state’s water management, putting water and agriculture at the top of his list of issues. He also says he wants improvements in infrastructure, renewable energy and education.
Republican representative. Michelle Steela South Korean immigrant, is seeking a third term in the 45th District, which was specifically designed to give Asian Americans a stronger voice on Capitol Hill.
The largest demographic group in the district, which is anchored in Orange County, is Asian Americans, which also includes the nation’s largest Vietnamese community. Democrats have a four-point registration lead.
Steel won the seat first in 2020 and then again 2022 with a 5-point win. This year she faces lawyer and workers’ rights advocate Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees.
Steel has outspokenly opposed tax increases and says he strongly supports Israel in its war with Hamas. “As our greatest ally in the Middle East, the United States must always support Israel,” she said in a recent email. She has advocated for increased police funding and has highlighted her efforts on domestic violence and sexual assault.
Tran has warned of Republican threats to abortion rights. Steel opposes abortion, with exceptions for rape, incest or to save the life of the pregnant woman, but does not go so far as to support a federal ban. Tran also says that a Trump return to the White House would endanger democracy.
The race will be watched nationally for hints about the preferences of Asian American voters.