Voters in nine states will decide next month whether to add abortion rights to their constitutions, but the measures are unlikely to dramatically change access — at least not immediately.
Instead, voter approval would lead to more lawsuits on an issue that has happened before constantly in court – and more so than at any time since the US Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade and opened the door to state abortion laws. In some states where the issue is on the ballot, it is already widely available.
If Missouri’s amendment passes and takes effect in December, the measure would not repeal a state ban on all stages of pregnancy, nor a number of other regulations — including a 72-hour waiting period and a 44-inch (112-centimeter) doorway rule for clinics. – that forced Planned Parenthood to stop abortions within two offices, years before Roe was overturned.
“A yes vote on this is not a vote to undo anything. It’s a vote to ensure that the courts are going to have to fight this out for a long time,” said Republican Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman.
Coleman, who is also a conservative constitutional lawyer, said the Republican-dominated Legislature could also go back to voters and ask them to overturn the amendment if it passes.
Still, the measure would mean “the wind will be at our backs” in the lawsuits to overturn the restrictions, said Emily Wales, the president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Great Plains, which operates in four states and is the only group in recent years to allow abortions in Missouri. They stopped completely just before Roe was overturned.
“It’s going to feel very different for us to say, ‘Missourians have a constitutional right. “If you’re going to get involved, you have to have a pretty good case,” she said.
There is a precedent for an amendment that does not immediately settle everything. An Ohio benchmark Last year, a law was passed banning abortion after heart activity can be detected, after about six weeks and before women often realize they are pregnant. Enforcement had already been blocked by a court. Ohio pleads have prevailed in summary proceedings against other regulations but that fight isn’t over, and they fear lawmakers will block the use of taxpayer money to support access.
“Having fewer legal restrictions doesn’t necessarily make sense for someone if he or she can’t afford the financial costs,” said Lexis Dotson-Dufault, executive director of the Abortion Fund of Ohio.
The most populous state with an abortion ballot measure this year is Florida. Winning requires the approval of 60% of voters. And Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration has done just that alleged fraud in signature collection process that put it on the ballot. That could be the basis for a lawsuit over whether the amendment would take effect on January 7. Meanwhile, those in favor of the measure charging current and former state health department officials for their efforts to get TV stations to stop running one advertisement for amendments.
The office of Attorney General Ashley Moody, a Republican tried to keep the measure out of the votedid not respond to an interview request.
A measure from Nevada would not immediately make much of an impression, because it would be legally required to be implemented not only in November, but also in 2026.
In Colorado, Maryland and New York – where the benchmark doesn’t say “abortion.” specifically, but prohibits discrimination based on “pregnancy outcomes” – abortion is already permitted at least until viability – generally considered beyond 20 weeks, with some exceptions.
The Colorado measure would also repeal a ban on using taxpayer money for abortion. A new law would be needed to add abortion to health insurance for government workers and people with Medicaid coverage.
Arizona’s amendment would go into effect with a proclamation from the governor if voters approve it. The state bans abortions after 15 weeks – and most occur before then. Earlier this year, some Republican lawmakers in the political battleground state joined Democrats to repeal a much more restrictive 1864 ban before it could be enforced.
In Nebraska the the vote includes competing measures: One would ban abortion after twelve weeks of pregnancy, with some exceptions, following the current ban, but leaving open the possibility of stricter restrictions. The other would allow abortion until viability is established.
To become law, an amendment would not only need majority support, but also more votes than the other measure.
In South Dakota, where abortion during pregnancy is banned, opponents and advocates have fought about a measure that would do that prohibit the state from regulating abortion in the first trimester and allow regulation of the second and third trimesters only under certain health conditions.
If the measure passes and survives the challenge, it will go into effect on July 1, 2025.
The Life Defense Fund is focusing on its campaign to defeat the measure at the ballot box, rather than on what might happen next, group spokesperson Caroline Woods said.
Dakotans for Health sponsored the amendment and expects the Republican-dominated Legislature will try to “thread that needle” and impose restrictions during the second trimester if the amendment passes, said group co-founder Rick Weiland.
And that would probably mean more lawsuits.
“This is a problem that will never go away,” Weiland said.