The number of people in Britain suffering a stroke will increase by more than 50% to 151,000 a year by 2035, costing the NHS and the economy £75 billion in healthcare and lost productivity, new forecasts show.
Deteriorating physical health, rising alcohol consumption and low levels of exercise among an aging population, as well as the failure of ministers and the health service to do more to prevent ill health, have been blamed for the predicted spike in strokes.
Juliet Bouverie, the chief executive of the Stroke Association, which produced the new analysis, warned that without urgent action the huge impact on the NHS and economy would be ‘unsustainable’ within a decade.
A range of lifestyle factors will fuel the expected rise in stroke rates over the next decade, she said, on top of an aging population and insufficient action on prevention.
“The UK is becoming less healthy,” Bouverie told the Guardian. “People are spending more of their lives in poor health and we can see that lifestyle factors such as harmful drinking have increased.
“Levels of physical activity remain low, a large proportion of the population is inactive and the physical activity gap between the most and least deprived areas is widening. This risks exacerbating health inequalities between areas in Britain.”
The biggest risk factor for stroke remains high blood pressure, Bouverie added, but the condition remains underdiagnosed.
“We have been calling for better hypertension detection programs for years so that more people can be supported to manage their blood pressure and reduce their risk of stroke through lifestyle changes or medication. The number of people prescribing blood pressure-lowering medications remains too low.”
A new manifesto According to a release from the charity, stroke will cost the UK around £43 billion this year, with 100,000 new hospital admissions for stroke each year.
This is expected to rise to 151,000 admissions by 2035 – the equivalent of 414 per day – with the number of stroke survivors rising from 1.3 million to 2.1 million.
The costs associated with the increase could reach £75 billion, including expected increases in health and social care costs, as well as the costs of informal care, and the impact on the economy. About a quarter of strokes affect people of working age, the report said.
“If the next government fails to get to the root of prevention, treatment and recovery, stroke will become the most avoidable burden on the NHS,” Bouverie said.
The Stroke Association is calling on the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) to publish a funded stroke prevention plan to support people of all ages to reduce their risk of stroke.
This includes improving the way people detect and manage conditions that increase the risk of stroke, such as high blood pressure. The charity also wants all patients to have 24-hour access to thrombectomies – an operation to remove blood clots from the artery.
The procedure is usually performed up to six hours after stroke symptoms begin.
The charity estimates that making thrombectomies universally available could save the health and care system £73 million a year and help an additional 1,600 stroke survivors achieve independence.
A spokesperson for the DHSC said: “We aim to improve stroke prevention, treatment and recovery for everyone. More than 90% of acute stroke providers in England are equipped with artificial intelligence, which could reduce the time needed to access a treatment such as thrombectomy by more than 60 minutes.
“The first-ever long-term workforce plan will help shift more care to the community and invest more in prevention and early intervention, and we are introducing a new digital NHS health check, which could prevent hundreds more strokes.
“We are also taking action to encourage better lifestyle choices, including creating a smoke-free generation and reducing salt intake through food to help prevent the risk of stroke.”