Under-fire progressive mayor of crime-ridden California city is accused of fiddling with figures to make it look like violent assaults are finally dropping
Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and California Governor Gavin Newsom boasted that a huge drop in crime meant the city was “moving in the right direction.”
Overall crime in Oakland appears to have dropped 33 percent in the first four months of the year compared to the crime wave of early 2023.
But on closer inspection, the statistics they cited amounted to comparing apples to hand grenades in the notoriously crime-ridden city.
The data published weekly by the Oakland Police Department is not manipulated, but its presentation is misleading, despite a disclaimer in the fine print.
Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao boasted that a huge drop in crime meant the city was “moving in the right direction”
A huge crowd robs an Oakland gas station after a car crashes into the glass to break in
The April 22-28 report cited by Thao and Newsome found that a total of 10,805 crimes have been committed so far in 2024, down from 16,008 during the same period in 2023.
The number of burglaries halved from 6,026 to 3,013, the number of thefts from 3,300 to 1,636 and the number of car thefts fell by 12 percent from 4,560 to 4,027.
However, the report compares the fully compiled statistics from the end of 2023 with the ongoing count for 2024.
If we compare the same report from April 17 to 23, 2023, we see that there are major differences in the number of crime registrations compared to the 2024 version.
In the old report there were only 3,849 burglaries, 2,282 thefts, 3,874 vehicle thefts and a total of 11,915 crimes. These are all much smaller decreases.
Overall crime in Oakland for the first four months of the year appeared to show a 33 percent decline compared to the crime wave of early 2023
But if we compare the same report from April 17 to 23, 2023, we see drastic differences in the number of crime registrations compared to the 2024 version.
The difference is explained by the delay in processing and compiling crime reports compared to when the reports were actually filed.
“Statistics may be affected by late reporting, the geocoding process or the reclassification or unfounding of crimes,” a disclaimer in all reports reads.
‘Because crime reporting and data entry can lag, not all crimes may be recorded.’
This is especially true for non-violent crimes such as burglaries and car thefts, which are often determined based on online reports and are investigated later because they are a lower priority.
“There may be a delay in the total number of property crimes reported as our community uses the online reporting system,” police said.
‘Each of these online crime reports must be reviewed and verified by one of our staff members before being included in the crime statistics.’
Thao’s May 1 tweet bragging about the reported 33 percent drop being based on a misleading statistical comparison
The police department has been struggling for years with staff shortages in its archives department and a system for managing reports that has not been updated since 2006.
Lt. Barry Donelan, chief of the Oakland Police Department’s Burglary and General Crimes Unit, explained that “deteriorated IT infrastructure” and inappropriate software were the cause.
“Do we know there are deficiencies in the numbers? Yes. Is there a desire among professional law enforcement to fix that? Oh, yes,” he told the San Francisco Chronicle.
He said police are not hiding the true numbers, but outdated systems and lack of staff simply cannot keep up with the number of reports.
Oakland’s crime statistics can also be wildly inaccurate in the other direction, as evidenced by year-end figures sent to the Justice Department earlier this year.
The report shows that the number of serious assault cases rose to 11,169 from 3,329 in 2022, after remaining stable for years and conflicting with other year-end figures.
An elderly woman is brutally attacked in Oakland, days after Thao touted her crime-fighting successes
There is no reliable way to know how much crime has decreased in Oakland in the first four months of 2024, or at any point until at least the end of the year.
Oakland’s crime statistics tend to become more accurate as the year progresses, as police focus on lower-priority cases and crimes that go uncounted make up a smaller portion of the total.
Timothy Gardner of Oakland Report, who analyzed the crime statistics on his website Sub-stackexplained that reports of violent crimes were generally accurate because they were a higher priority.
Burglaries and other property crimes, on the other hand, were a lower priority and were reported online or to the control room. It took longer to investigate and follow up on the reports, and the statistics were sometimes downright inaccurate.
Analysis by Oakland Report’s Timothy Gardner of the historical inaccuracies between current and final crime statistics
“Since burglaries account for more than 35 percent of total crime, this also has a significant impact on the underestimation of total crime. Total crime has been underestimated by 20-35 percent in April/May in recent years,” he wrote.
‘The mayor’s assessment of crime so far this year almost certainly underestimates actual crime in 2024 by 20-35 percent.
“The mayor…claimed that overall crime is down 33 percent year to date — which is consistent with the historical undercounting error. And it’s highly likely that the claimed declines in crime would disappear if all the data were available.”
According to Gardner, politicians and the media should not use incomplete statistics and should compare apples with apples.
The other problem, he said, was that government initiatives to address the root causes of crime often took years to materialize. They could be presented only after months or without proper research.