Unai Emery is Aston Villa’s untouchable master – but this is why Ollie Watkins holds the key to arresting their slump, writes TOM COLLOMOSSE

When he returned to the Premier League three years after his tumultuous spell at Arsenal, Unai Emery knew exactly who he wanted to emulate.

Before Emery agreed to take charge of Aston Villa, he asked for a setup similar to Pep Guardiola’s. Like the Manchester City boss, Emery wanted a say in the appointment of not only his backroom staff, but also key managers.

It wasn’t just about coaching the players and picking the team. Emery’s vision was to shape the entire club, just as Guardiola had done 80 miles north. He got his way. Emery’s power at Villa is not only comparable to that of Guardiola, but also to that of Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger.

Emery’s dream was to match Guardiola step for step. With fifty trophies between them, these are two of the best coaches in Europe. But when they shake hands before kick-off at Villa Park on Saturday, they are both in an unusually precarious place.

Despite just two wins in the league, Villa have not slumped as dramatically as City. In just over two years, Emery has taken a team from the wrong side of the table to the Champions League, recording wins over City, Arsenal (twice) and Bayern Munich. The results in Europe were excellent.

Given the restrictive spending rules in the Premier League, finishing in the top four two years in a row was always going to be a tall order.

Villa were forced to sell key midfielder Douglas Luiz to Juventus last June to avoid breaching profitability and sustainability rules and avoid the large points deduction that would have come with it. There will certainly be one major sell-off this summer and there will be little room for maneuver in January.

If Villa finish eighth or ninth this season and have a decent run in Europe, few sane supporters would complain too much. Regardless, Emery did an excellent job.

Villa co-owners Nassef Sawiris and Wes Edens are optimistic he can deliver regular Champions League football – something Villa may need to remain competitive. Precisely for this reason they made him one of the highest paid bosses in Europe, with a significant buyout clause in his contract.

They also approved a significant increase in player salaries, and a host of hand-picked Emery assistants. Emery’s influence extends so far that, according to some joke, there will be no one left to train the day he leaves.

The 53-year-old isn’t just the guy in the dugout. He is the lead analyst, the man manager and the deciding voice in player trading and new contract awards. Although he can rely on staff in all these areas, Emery stands – hunched over his laptop – on the other side of the site. “Workaholic” doesn’t even begin to cover it.

If the team wins, this approach is great. Everyone knows who is in charge and if a player tries to take on Emery, there is only one winner. At some other Premier League clubs, players only have to walk into a director’s office to undermine the boss and have a good moan. That tactic will never work at Villa.

But if results deteriorate, few will have the seniority to question Emery. Almost everyone on the football side owes his job to him. Even Monchi, a transfer expert renowned throughout the game, is in the West Midlands because Emery recommended him.

Chris Heck runs the business at Villa, but lacks the football experience to take Emery aside and say a few nice words at the right time to keep everyone calm. Because sometimes, no matter how hard Emery works, some things are beyond his control.

As a man who likes to take care of every detail, Emery won’t hear that his team is ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’. However, this is exactly what has changed. While the ball bounced so often in Villa’s favor last season, this season was different.

Rodri missed just four league matches for City last season. One of these came at Villa Park on December 6 last year, when Emery’s men won 1-0 in the best display of his reign.

The equalizer in the 3-3 draw against Liverpool in May, which effectively sealed Villa’s place in the top four, was a total fluke as Moussa Diaby’s overhit pass fired at Jhon Duran and flew past the helpless Alisson.

As Villa threw away a two-goal lead at home to Chelsea, the visitors found themselves on the wrong end of a highly controversial VAR call that denied them a winner.

This season, Emery must feel like a poker player with a string of bad hands. Tyrone Mings conceded a bizarre penalty in the 1-0 defeat at Club Brugge when he was punished for picking up the ball in the penalty area, believing it to be dead. Many referees wouldn’t have given it, but Tobias Stieler did.

Morgan Rogers had an injury-time goal disallowed against Juventus when Diego Carlos was harshly judged for fouling goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio. John McGinn had his goal disallowed in the 1-1 draw against Bournemouth when the ball had predictably rolled out of play in the build-up – an incredibly tight decision. Rogers was denied a clear penalty in the 2-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest last weekend.

Villa averaged 12.9 shots per match, while only six clubs shot fewer. In such circumstances you need a centre-forward who is clinical, and Ollie Watkins has been anything but.

Based on stats from FBref.com, Watkins is behind only Erling Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer for xG (expected goals), but he only has seven. Haaland and Salah have 13 each, Palmer 11.

The 28-year-old’s poor run cannot be solely attributed to fluctuating form. Watkins missed pre-season after playing for England at the 2024 European Championship and is unsettled by Duran’s progress.

Like most No9s, Watkins does not like competition and performs better when he is clearly the first choice. Watkins was substituted six times between the 60th and 70th minutes and Duran was favored from the start against Southampton and Forest.

At this stage of his career, Watkins is a much more complete footballer than Duran, but the Colombian is capable of magical moments that change games. Emery hasn’t yet found a way to accommodate both.

If you exclude Emery’s time with French champions Paris St Germain and Spanish yo-yo club Almeria, his average points per match in Europe’s top five leagues is 1.69. That equates to 64.2 points over a 38-game season. Since four teams automatically qualified for the Champions League in 2009/2010, 64 points have never been enough to finish fourth. In the Premier League alone, Emery’s average is 66.8 points, which would have placed him in fourth place in the 2015/16 and 2019/20 seasons.

That total will usually be enough for a European spot, which Villa would still do very well. Let’s not forget that six years ago they were on the verge of bankruptcy and only escaped the championship in 2019. But Sawiris and Edens never wanted to stop there.

Emery’s brilliance so far has masked off-field problems, with many supporters unhappy with ticket prices and the club’s seating policy. The last thing anyone needs is tension behind the scenes between coach and hierarchy. Therefore, a repeat of the result and performance against City from twelve months ago would be great.