The terrorist threat from al-Qaeda, the Islamic State group and their affiliates remains high in conflict zones in Africa and Afghanistan – and threat levels have risen in some regions including Europe, UN experts say in a new report.
The panel of experts said in the 23-page report that the relationship between Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers and al-Qaeda remains close, with unnamed member states reporting that “the high concentration of terrorist groups” in the country is deteriorating the security situation in the country. undermines the region. .
The biggest threat in Afghanistan continues to come from Islamic State “with its ability to project in the region and beyond,” the experts said in the report to the UN Security Council covering the period until December 16, 2023, distributed on Wednesday. Regionally, they pointed to a series of attacks in neighboring Iran and Pakistan and threats in Central Asian countries.
However, the panel said that while none of the al Qaeda-affiliated groups have regained the ability to launch long-range operations, “they harbor global ambitions.” And it said “covert and calibrated efforts to rebuild capacity” have been reported.
The Islamic State group broke away from al-Qaeda more than a decade ago and has attracted followers from around the world. Despite the defeat in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria two years later. The panel said the combined IS force in the two countries still stands at between 3,000 and 5,000 fighters. In Iraq they are waging “a low-intensity insurgency with secret terrorist cells,” while in Syria attacks have intensified since November, the experts said.
The panel said the three-month delay in appointing the current IS leader, Abu Hafs al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi, after the death of his little-known predecessor “is considered indicative of internal difficulties and security challenges.”
Some unnamed UN member states have determined that the severe pressure from counter-terrorism operations in Syria and Iraq raises the possibility that Islamic State could shift its leadership and “center of gravity” to Africa or Afghanistan, with Africa being more likely, the experts said.
In West Africa and the Sahel, the panel said, “violence and threats have re-escalated” in conflict zones, raising concerns among UN member states. The experts point to “a shortage of counter-terrorism capabilities” that Islamic State and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups continue to exploit.
“The situation is becoming increasingly complex due to the convergence of ethnic and regional disputes with the agenda and activities of these groups,” they said.
In East Africa, experts said, the Somali government is continuing its military offensive against Al-Shabab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, but they said UN member states believe that despite significant losses from airstrikes and military operations “Al-Shabab still resilient. The country has an estimated 7,000 to 12,000 fighters and an annual income of an estimated $100 million, mainly from illegal taxation in the capital Mogadishu and southern Somalia, they said.
The panel said al-Qaeda has improved its media productions, which appeared aimed at restoring the extremist group’s credibility, attracting recruits and filling the void over its inability to announce a new leader.
But that message changed after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks in southern Israel, the experts said.
Israeli authorities say the attack killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and Hamas and other extremists took about 250 hostage. More than 27,000 people have been killed in Israel’s ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza aimed at destroying Hamas, according to the territory’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths.
The experts said al-Qaeda has focused on “the sanctity” of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam located on a site in Jerusalem sacred to Jews and Muslims, with some reports saying the emphasis is placed on ‘an obligation for individuals to take action up to the limits of their own capabilities.”
“Member States are concerned that they (Al-Qaeda) could exploit the situation to restore its relevance and respond to popular disagreement about the scale of civilian casualties, and to provide direction to those who would like to want to take action,” the panel said, and they “are concerned that the updated narrative could inspire self-initiated attacks worldwide.”
Across Europe, the experts said, “formal terrorist threat levels have risen… following deadly attacks in late 2023 in France and Belgium, in addition to numerous non-fatal terrorist incidents and arrests in several European countries.”