Ukraine’s Russia offensive is risky. To get a boost, it wants less US caution on weapons

WASHINGTON — Ukraine daring ground offensive has shifted the fight to Russia, but not nearly as hard as leaders would like, as they say the United States will not allow it.

The US is limiting the use of long-range ballistic missiles it supplies to Ukraine, which it wants to target at military targets in Russia. Ukraine’s offensive, along with a barrage of drones and missiles launched by Moscow this week has increased pressure on the Biden administration to relax its cautious approach to using Western weapons in escalating Ukrainian attacks.

The Biden administration says its careful considerations, including what advanced weapons it delivers to Ukraine and when, are necessary to avoid retaliation by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Some analysts agree that Putin would view a Ukrainian strike with a U.S. long-range missile inside Russia as a U.S. attack itself.

But many other U.S. and European supporters of Ukraine say the White House must recognize that Putin’s threats to attack the West, including with nuclear weapons, are a bluff. They fear that the U.S. support that allowed Ukraine to resist Russia’s 2022 invasion comes with delays and caveats that could ultimately contribute to its defeat.

“This war will end exactly the way Western policymakers want it to,” said Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. general who led NATO in Europe from 2013 to 2016. He is among retired U.S. military leaders and diplomats, Republican lawmakers, security analysts and others pushing for an easing of restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons.

“If we keep doing what we’re doing, Ukraine will ultimately lose,” Breedlove said. “Because right now … we’re deliberately not giving Ukraine what they need to win.”

Lifting such restrictions “would strengthen Ukrainian self-defense, save lives and reduce destruction in Ukraine,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell wrote on social media platform X on Monday after Russia fired more than 200 missiles and drones into Ukraine. The next day, Russia launched 91 more.

The push and pull takes place during Ukraine’s surprise offensive in the southern Russian region of Kursk, the first ground invasion of Russia since World War II.

By means of the warUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has balanced lavish expressions of gratitude for U.S. support with frustrated pleas for more weapons and ammunition. This month, he ramped up the pressure again, saying Ukraine should fight the war as it sees fit with whatever weapons it has at its disposal and calling on the U.S. to lift a ban on the use of long-range American ATACMS missiles to penetrate deeper into Russia.

“A sick old man from Red Square, who constantly threatens everyone with the red button, will not impose any of his red lines on us,” Zelensky said recently about Putin.

The Biden administration this year allowed Ukraine to fire shorter-range munitions made in the U.S. across the border for self-defense, but not ATACMS.

Security analysts say Ukraine is using US-supplied HIMARS missile systems in its offensive. Ukraine also announced that it used a US-supplied glide bomb against Russian forces and has deployed its own prototype of a hybrid drone-missile with a long range.

Zelensky’s army appears to have launched a ground offensive on August 6 without consulting US leaders.

Now that Ukraine has claimed nearly 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory, it has received a message from another American ally receiving military support, said Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian parliamentarian and military commander.

“Israel once said that it is very respectful of the advice of its partners, but as an independent state it makes decisions independently,” Kostenko told the news outlet Ukrainska Pravda. “I believe we can mirror this.”

The US deliberated for a long time before finally approving a range of advanced weapons requested by Ukraine: modern tanks, medium-range precision missile systems, Patriot missile batteries, ATACMS for use on occupied Ukrainian territory and F-16 aircraft.

The Biden administration condemned Russian attacks this week on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and is helping to bolster its ally’s air defenses, but has not changed its policy on long-range weapons, national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters this week.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government discussions, said the Biden administration believes ATACMS strikes inside Russia would not provide a strategic advantage.

There are too few ATACMS to strike a large number of targets in Russia, the official said, adding that Ukraine is using the long-range missiles it has to break Russia’s grip on the strategically important Crimean Peninsula.

Russia has also moved many of its aircraft from what the Institute for the Study of War research group calls 16 Russian air bases within potential range of ATACMS. That includes planes that launch the hard-to-intercept glide bombs that Russia uses in Ukraine, the official said.

Many outside the government disagree. More than 200 other Russian military targets are within ATACMS range in what appear to be casually guarded areas along 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) of the border, said George Barros, a security analyst focusing on Ukraine and Russia for the Institute for the Study of War, which provides some of the most closely watched analysis of the conflict’s battlefield.

According to Barros, the targets include major military bases, communications stations, logistics centers, repair facilities, fuel depots, ammunition storage facilities and permanent headquarters.

While tech-savvy Ukraine is pioneering aggressive new ways to deploy armed drones and electronic warfare against Russia, hardened targets such as bases need the greater power that ATACMS can provide, Barros said.

A few selective strikes on a number of Russian targets would force Putin to shift manpower and resources to protect those targets, he said.

“That’s the kind of tension that dramatically reduces an attacker’s ability to successfully logistically support its frontline forces,” Barros said.

Ukraine, fighting a much larger army, needs the momentum on the battlefield it hopes to gain from surprise offensives, demoralizing strikes into Russia, and advanced weaponry. While it has accomplished some feats by deploying armed and unmanned drone boats to blockade the Russian navy in the Black Sea, its greatest battlefield successes have come in the war’s dramatic first months.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 ended without major gains, and then a political stalemate in the US blocked military aid for months and allowed Russian forces to seize territory.

In grim conversations this summer, Ukrainians and Americans spoke about the risk of a ceasefire on Russian termsWithout the leverage of battlefield successes, Ukraine could be forced to cede large swaths of Ukrainian territory and face another invasion later.

Billions of dollars in U.S. military aid are flowing in again. Zelenskyy has expanded the military draft. And U.S. military leaders are talking again about what the allies’ vision was for the next phase of the war, said Bill Taylor, a veteran former diplomat who served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009.

That means Ukraine will spend the rest of the year rebuilding its ground forces and increasing its capacity to strike Russia hard enough to reach a ceasefire next year on terms Ukraine can accept, he said.

Long-range missiles on military targets all over Russia are part of that, Taylor said. “The Ukrainians should not have to give the Russians sanctuary.”