The Ukrainian army has dismissed claims by the head of Wagner’s Russian mercenaries that he will withdraw his fighters from the battle for the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut.
The Ukrainian military said on Friday that Wagner fighters were fortifying positions in Bakhmut with the likely intent of trying to take the devastated city before Russia marks the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II on May 9.
“We now see them pulling (fighters) from all over the line of attack where the Wagner fighters were, they’re pulling (them) towards Bakhmut,” Ukraine’s deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said on Ukrainian television. .
In a video statement, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said his men had run out of ammunition by the Russian Defense Ministry and that he would withdraw his men and expect the Russian army to take their place in Bakhmut by May 10.
“My boys will not suffer useless and unjustified losses in Bakhmut without ammunition,” Prigozhin said in the video accompanying a written announcement of withdrawal addressed to the Chief of the Russian General Staff, the Ministry of Defense and President Vladimir Putin as Supreme Commander.
The announcement said “bureaucrats” had been holding back supplies despite knowing Wagner’s target date to take the city was May 9, when Moscow holds its Victory Day parade.
The battle for Bakhmut, which Russia views as a springboard to other cities in Ukraine’s Donbas region, has been the most intense of the war, costing thousands of lives on both sides in months of bloody urban warfare.
Despite Prigozhin’s claims that he is withdrawing, the Ukrainian military has seen no signs of an imminent withdrawal of Wagner troops from Bakhmut, Ukrainian military intelligence representative Andriy Chernyak told RBK-Ukraine news agency.
The Ukrainian military also contradicted Prigozhin’s claim that the Russian troops in Bakhmut had no ammunition.
“Today alone, 520 shots were fired by various types of artillery in Bakhmut and its surroundings,” Ukrainian army spokesman Serhii Cherevatyi said.
He said Prigozhin tried to explain away the deaths of his troops, who numbered more than 100 a day, due to a lack of ammunition.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he could not comment on Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw and that it was a military matter.
Earlier on Friday, Prigozhin was pictured surrounded by corpses he said were his Wagner fighters, shouting epithets at Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Prigozhin said Shoigu and Gerasimov must bear responsibility for “tens of thousands of Wagner dead and wounded”.
“Smoke and Mirrors”
Months of Prigozhin’s tirades have made it clear that his words are rarely taken at face value, military analysts said.
Prigozhin and his mercenaries are “essential elements of Russian military intelligence, so we don’t believe anything he says,” said Kimberly Marten, a professor at Barnard College and Columbia University who specializes in Russian security issues.
Marten noted that it would be reckless for a military commander to “broadcast” his intentions to his enemy five or six days in advance.
“This is all smoke and mirrors, so we’re just guessing,” she said.
Yohann Michel, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said Prigozhin’s statement resembled an attempt to shift blame for the failure of the capture of Bakhmut and an indication that its capture remained elusive.
Michel also questioned whether Prigozhin had the agency to withdraw without the Kremlin’s permission: “If Putin wants him to fight, he will somehow force him to do so.”
Austrian analyst Gerhard Mangott said that if Prigozhin were to actually withdraw, “it would be much too soon for the Russian regular forces to take over the positions of the Wagner fighters in and around Bakhmut”.
“If he is serious… this would give the Ukrainian forces an opportunity to take parts, or all, of Bakhmut from the Russians,” he said, adding that this would be a disaster for Putin and Shoigu.
Shoigu did not immediately comment on Prigozhi, but his ministry reported on Friday that he had instructed a top official to ensure a “continuous supply” of all necessary weapons and military equipment to Russian troops.
And contrary to Prigozhin’s visibility, an official video showed Shoigu inspecting tanks and other military equipment destined for Russian troops in Ukraine.
Late last year, the United States estimated that Wagner had about 50,000 personnel fighting in Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts the company has recruited. In February, the US estimated that Wagner had suffered more than 30,000 casualties since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, killing about 9,000 of those fighters.