The UK could face a “tsunami of missed cancers” after an international study found the number of diagnoses fell sharply during the pandemic, leading experts say.
Preliminary figures from the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership, presented to delegates at the World Cancer Congress in Geneva, compare data on the number and stage of cancer diagnosis in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom, before and during the pandemic.
The results showed that the decline in diagnoses of lung, breast, colorectal and skin cancers in 2020 was largest and most sustained in the UK countries, with Northern Ireland and Wales performing particularly poorly compared to the other countries surveyed.
While all countries saw a decline in the number of cases diagnosed at the height of the pandemic, most countries had caught up within a year. In contrast, Wales and Northern Ireland had still not recovered their diagnosis rates by the end of 2020.
The study calculated that between April and July 2020, breast cancer diagnoses fell by 35% in Northern Ireland and Wales, compared with 24% in Norway and just 14% in Denmark. For lung cancer, the fall over the same period was 16% in Northern Ireland and Wales, compared with 10% in Norway or 1% in New Zealand.
For the most affected month, 44% of breast cancer cases and 30% of lung cancer cases were missed in Northern Ireland and Wales. There were also sharp falls in colorectal cancer diagnoses.
The decline in diagnosed cases was greatest for early-stage cancers, partly due to the suspension of screening programmes. In Northern Ireland and Wales, diagnoses of stage I breast cancer fell by 44% and 51% respectively.
Cancer experts expect that due to the large drop in diagnoses, many more patients will report with advanced cancer.
“These data are a shocking wake-up call, providing key evidence that the UK can expect a tsunami of missed cancers and a potential shift in stage that could lead to more aggressive cancers that are harder to treat,” said Mark Lawler, professor of digital health at Queen’s University Belfast and chair of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. “And the fact that we are still some way off meeting the 62-day target for treating cancer can only make the problem worse.”
Leading oncologist and co-founder of the Catch Up With Cancer campaign, Prof Pat Price, said: “These figures are a timely and devastating reminder of the colossal cancer crisis. Without urgent action we will see more patients diagnosed at a later stage and more patients facing delays in treatment.
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“We were at the bottom of the cancer charts before the pandemic, and as this study shows, we simply haven’t recovered from the diagnosis gap. But it doesn’t have to be this way, as Lord Darzi’s new NHS report highlights. If ever there was a time to deliver and implement a dedicated cancer recovery plan, it is now.”
Naser Turabi, director of evidence and implementation at Cancer Research UK, said: “These findings suggest the UK healthcare system is less resilient compared to countries like New Zealand, making it more vulnerable to the impact of COVID. This could have serious implications for cancer patients who have experienced delays in diagnosis due to overwhelmed services.”