U.S. PC prices could rise if Trump’s tariff threats materialize
- Despite recent growth, PC shipments will slow in 2025, Canalys predicts
- Proposed Trump tariffs and Windows 11 upgrade costs are to blame
- Import tariffs could increase PC prices by as much as 46%
New research from Canalys has confirmed recent healthy growth in the US PC market, with shipments up 7% year-over-year to 17.9 million units in Q3 2024, but the outlook for the near future are not so positive.
The company said the market recovery could slow in the coming months due to potential headwinds related to macroeconomic policies – a consequence of Trump’s impending presidency.
Other factors, such as weaker momentum in the Windows refresh cycle despite the current operating system, Windows 10, losing support in October 2025, will also impact the market.
US PC market faces upcoming challenges
With quarterly growth expected to continue into the first quarter of 2025, Canalys predicts a shrinking market in the second quarter, with growth barely in the numbers in the third and fourth quarters.
The forecast growth of 2% for all of 2025 will be significantly lower than the expected 6% in 2024. Last year’s figures have not yet been released.
Despite slowing growth, the distribution of buyers remains fairly consistent, with consumers accounting for approximately 37% of purchases and commercial customers accounting for 43-44% of the market. Customers from government and education make up the other customers.
Canalys analyst Greg Davis noted: “As the 2024 US presidential election comes to a close, US macroeconomic conditions are not expected to be as stable in the near term as they have been over the past two years.”
The company’s publication cites recent research from the Consumer Technology Association showing that proposed tariffs under Trump’s incoming leadership could increase laptop and tablet prices by as much as 46%. Smartphones could also see a 26% price increase due to proposed tariffs of 10-20% on imports from most countries, and 60% on Chinese imports.
A struggling market and rising costs mark a significant change from Canalys’ expectations from September 2024, when the company stated that US PC shipments could grow 6% in both 2024 and 2025.