Turkey election: A guide to Erdogan’s biggest test at the polls

INTERPRETER

Will the May 14 elections end President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year stranglehold on Turkey?

Millions of people will go to the polls next week to vote in Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections, which observers expect will be the toughest test in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year run as the country’s leader.

The country’s struggling economy has dealt a blow to Erdogan, while his rivals, taking advantage of the panic, have pledged to improve conditions. But Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) still enjoy strong support among large groups of nationalists and religious conservatives, especially in Turkey’s Anatolian heartland, who see an opposition victory as a return to an era of oppression. felt.

Here’s an overview of everything you need to know:

When are the elections in Turkey?

• Presidential and parliamentary elections are held on the same day every five years. This year’s elections were originally scheduled for June 18, but were brought forward to May 14.

How does the Turkish electoral system work?

• In July 2018, Turkey transitioned from a parliamentary system to a presidential system. In the new system, voters elect the president directly and the role of prime minister has been abolished.
• A candidate needs more than half of the presidential vote to win. However, if no one reaches 50 percent, the top two candidates will face each other in a second ballot two weeks later.
• Voters will also elect 600 Grand National Assembly, as the Turkish parliament is called, members through a system of proportional representation, who choose a party list in their district.

Who are the candidates and what do they promise?

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, 69

• The incumbent party is a candidate for the People’s Alliance, a coalition of its AK party and several right-wing parties.
• During his 20-year rule, Erdogan served as prime minister for 11 years before becoming president in 2014.
• Led Turkey’s economic and institutional transformation in the 2000s and early 2010s. As a result, Erdogan has gained a lot of goodwill from supporters, who say their lives have improved. He is also seen as strengthening Turkey on the international stage and growing the country’s influence.
• But the country’s struggling economy over the past 18 months has tarnished its popularity.
• He is accused of cracking down on opposition groups, although government supporters said the measures were necessary following a 2016 coup attempt and threats from “terrorist” groups.
• Promises: Continuation of the presidential system, lower interest rates and a strong, independent Turkey with influence in the wider region.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74

• The main challenger to Erdogan and the candidate for the six opposition Nation Alliance parties.

• Describes himself as a “Democrat” and is known for his anti-corruption rhetoric, but has been accused by opponents of being too close to the West.
• Kilicdaroglu led the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) through more than a decade of electoral defeats.
• Critics say those election defeats show he is not strong enough to defeat Erdogan and lead Turkey. A leading member of his own alliance, the head of the nationalist Iyi party Meral Aksener, initially rejected Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy in March before reversing her stance.
• Before entering politics, he was a specialist in the Ministry of Finance and then served as the chairman of the Social Insurance Institution of Turkey for most of the 1990s.
• Promises: return to a “strong parliamentary system”, solve the Kurdish question, send Syrian refugees home and move closer to the European Union and the United States.

Muharrem Ince, 58

• The Homeland Party nominee – the only contender without an alliance backing him – has labeled his move as the “Third Way.”
• Former CHP deputy and party candidate for the 2018 election where he came in second. He later split from the party, which he is critical of.
• Ince says Turkish social democrats and secular nationalists should unite against “Islamist” political parties.
• His confrontational demeanor has led to clashes with journalists, and Kilicdaroglu supporters believe he is taking away their candidate’s support and helping Erdogan.
• Promises: sending refugees back to their homeland and “restoring” secularism in Turkey.

Sinan Ogan, 55

• Candidate of the tri-party nationalist Ancestral Alliance (ATA).
• Ogan has an academic and international financial development background.
• Former member of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), an ally of the Erdogan-led AK Party.
• An MHP candidate, he was elected as a deputy for Igdır, a city in eastern Turkey, in 2011 and expelled from the party in 2015 due to internal opposition.
• He has been accused of pursuing a xenophobic and far-right policy, especially when it comes to Syrian refugees.
• Promises: return refugees to their homeland and support the unity of the Turkish states.

What are the main election themes?

Economy

• Rate cuts triggered a currency crisis in late 2021, pushing inflation to a 24-year high of 85.51 percent last year.
• But Erdogan’s supporters say he has revolutionized Turkey’s economy, built infrastructure and developed regions traditionally ignored by the central Turkish government.

Earthquakes

• Two massive earthquakes that hit southeastern Turkey on February 6 left more than 50,000 dead and widespread destruction. Reconstruction is expected to cost billions of dollars.
• An estimated 14 million people – 16 percent of the population – were affected by the earthquakes.

Brain drain

• An increasing number of educated and highly educated people are leaving the country for political and economic reasons.
• According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, 286,000 people between the ages of 20 and 29 left Turkey between 2019 and 2021.

Values ​​and identity

• Erdogan, as prime minister, lifted the ban on women wearing the hijab from working in the public sector in 2013, a move many hailed as a confirmation of their place in society and their religious observance.
• The CHP had previously supported the hijab ban and Erdogan says it could be reinstated — along with all the identity erasure that comes with it — if he lost, as part of other measures that would threaten AKP supporters’ values .

Democracy

• Erdogan’s opponents accuse him of undoing democratic gains in Turkey, particularly after the failed coup attempt in 2016, in which thousands were arrested.
• Critics also say press freedom has deteriorated, with 90 percent of all Turkish media outlets under the control of Erdogan’s government and businessmen close to him.

Refugees

• Anti-refugee sentiment is on the rise, with increasing reports of violence, abuse and crime between Syrian and Turkish communities.
• According to the government, about 3.7 million of Turkey’s total of 5.5 million foreigners are Syrian refugees. The government has been praised internationally for its refugee policy, but opposition candidates are capitalizing on growing hostility towards refugees.