Trump’s trial will electrify the world. But his enemies, so desperate to see him locked up, may have made a monumental tactical blunder, writes ANDREW NEIL

It’s hard to blame Donald Trump (aka Dozy Don) for apparently falling asleep during the first day of his “hush money” trial in New York on Monday.

Yes, it is the first-ever criminal trial of a former US president and he is also the only leading presidential candidate to ever face criminal proceedings. Add to that the chance that he could go to jail if found guilty and you would expect Trump to pay close attention.

But the early stages of the trial were dominated by arcane legal arguments over procedural issues and the interminable process of jury selection, now an inevitable feature of American justice.

This could continue for a week or more. So despite all the hoopla surrounding this trial and the massive media circus that is taking part in it, Trump and the rest of us have to be prepared to be bored for a while longer.

But patience will get its just reward, because this lawsuit is the stuff of the tabloids – porn stars, hush money, dodgy lawyers, Playboy bunnies, illegal sex and cover-ups – meaning it will find a large audience far beyond those who are usually interested. in Trump for everyday things like his politics.

The circus that has set up its marquee on the 15th floor of a rather dingy Manhattan courthouse will soon captivate most of America — and much of the rest of the world, too.

Whether it will make a compelling case against Trump is another matter. Dozy Don faces 88 criminal charges in cases spanning four states.

Many Democrats, who would like to see him go to trial on any or all charges, are baffled that the first case is the New York case that they, along with legal experts and political commentators, fear is the weakest — even if Trump is guilty is found, voters will have difficulty understanding that what he did was truly criminal.

This also plays into Trump’s oft-repeated claim that he is the victim of political persecution by Democratic activists, including many in the Biden administration, who are using the law against him because they fear they cannot defeat him at the ballot box.

In his view, the procedure has all the characteristics of a show trial. Trump will be judged by a mostly Democratic jury in a trial presided over by a Democratic judge and mediated by a Democratic prosecutor.

Manhattan, where the jury will be selected, voted 87 percent for Joe Biden in 2020. Nearly 100 potential jurors were dismissed Monday, with 50 percent immediately dismissed because they admitted by show of hands that they could. are not fair or impartial.

The selection process will undoubtedly root out the most blatant anti-Trump biases. But in the end, the jury will still be overwhelmingly Democrat.

Its chairman, Juan Merchan, donated to the Biden-Harris campaign and other “progressive” causes in 2020. The amounts were a pittance, but it also illustrates how he leans.

On the way to court yesterday, the defendant said Judge Merchan “hated Trump” and was “totally conflicted.”

District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a left-wing Democrat, campaigned before the election and promised to “get” Trump. He didn’t know exactly what for, but promised he would find a charge to bring Trump to justice. Since suing Trump, he has raised $850,000 for his re-election campaign.

The American judiciary has always been overly influenced by politics, but has now become so politicized, by both Democrats and Republicans for their own purposes, that it can hardly be described as independent and impartial.

But even in what Trump and his followers see as a rigged trial, it is not clear whether District Attorney Bragg has a compelling enough case to secure a conviction.

It is claimed that Trump – now married to Melania – had a ‘sexual encounter’ in 2006 with a porn star who goes by the stage name Stormy Daniels. Ten years later, on the eve of the 2016 presidential election, Trump’s then lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen, paid her £105,000, widely considered hush money, to keep her quiet until the election was out of the way. Under New York State law, it is not illegal to pay someone to bury a sex scandal.

Cohen was reimbursed in stages through 2017 through a monthly retainer disguised as payments for legal services, which also compensated him for the taxes he would have to pay on this income.

Bragg has zoomed in on this ‘false accounting’. Yet this tampering with business records is generally viewed as a relatively minor offense – a misdemeanor – rather than a more serious crime or misdemeanor.

To reach that higher level of criminality, Bragg must, under New York law, prove that Trump was cooking the books with the intent to commit a crime, which would turn a misdemeanor into a misdemeanor.

What exactly that crime was is not clear, certainly not to this layman and not even to many legal experts. This could involve illegal use of campaign funds to pay off a mistress. Or using money to unlawfully help a presidential candidate. Or maybe it has something to do with tax fraud.

It’s really not clear. This is why federal prosecutors, who studied the case, decided not to go down this path. Neither did Bragg’s predecessor.

But prosecutors threw caution to the wind and padded his indictment by including every invoice, check and ledger entry related to the Cohen payments, building a 34-count indictment against Trump, each with a possible felony charge. four years in prison.

So far, Bragg has advanced some “theories” about Trump’s actual crime, which the judge has accepted are worth the court’s time. The trial will undoubtedly clarify what exactly Trump is alleged to have done.

‘Stormy’ plans to testify. That includes Karen McDougal, a former Playboy bunny with whom Trump is said to have been having an affair for months (his friends tell me he was actually in love), and who was paid £120,000 to keep quiet.

Cohen will be the prosecution’s star witness as he is on a mission to destroy his former boss. But he has already admitted to lying under oath and served three years in prison for tax evasion and corporate violations. So he may not be the decisive witness Bragg hopes for.

The trial runs four days a week and lasts six to eight weeks. Because it is a criminal trial, Trump must attend every hearing, which will limit his ability to campaign or raise money at a time when President Biden is raising tens of millions for his re-election.

On the other hand, the trial will give Trump much of what he loves most: publicity. Whether that strengthens his pitch for the White House remains to be seen.

The “show trial” aspect could generate more sympathy for him than just his supporters. Or the nastier side of things could simply turn off independents and moderate Republicans, especially women, among whom Trump already polls poorly.

The criminal case in Georgia against Trump, in which he is accused of trying to disrupt the outcome of the 2020 election, is much more serious than the charge in New York.

But Trump is a happy man. The Georgia case is in trouble because the district attorney there is embroiled in scandal for having an inappropriate relationship with her lead prosecutor.

So New York comes first and may be the only case to be finalized this side of the November election.

We don’t even know whether, in the event of a guilty verdict, the prosecutor will seek prison time (not that being behind bars — which is unlikely — would necessarily stop Trump from running for the White House).

Nor do we know the attitude of the Secret Service, a federal agency that has promised to protect presidents past and present if the New York Police Department tried to jail him.

Uncharted territory indeed, although that is always the case with Trump. Dozy Don may be his new name, but no one will fall asleep when this thing really takes off.