Trump’s return may be a boon for Netanyahu, but challenges abound in a changed Middle East
TEL AVIV, Israel — Shortly afterwards Donald Trump’s victory in last month’s US elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rushed to congratulate the president-elect: “The greatest comeback in history!” he gushed.
As Trump’s staunchly pro-Israel first term are nominations for top government positions there is some indication that Netanyahu’s joy is justified.
But a lot has happened since Trump left office in early 2021 wars in the Middle EastThe lofty ambitions of Netanyahu’s far-right governing coalition and Netanyahu’s personal relationship with him could dampen that enthusiasm and complicate what at first glance appears to be a seamless alliance.
“For Bibi, this is his dream. He wanted this,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli journalist and biographer of Netanyahu, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname. “For Bibi it is too good to be true.”
Now Netanyahu is going to testify in his corruption trial and enter into confrontation an international arrest warrant on the war in Gaza, Trump’s support will be all the more important.
During Trump’s first term, he implemented policies that were largely favorable to Netanyahu. Trump broke with long-standing US policy of recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the US embassy to the embattled city over Palestinian objections.
He recognized it Israel’s claim to the Golan Heightsconsidered occupied Syrian territory by the international community. He also turned a blind eye to the construction of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank presented a peace plan that would leave dozens of settlements intact.
The Palestinians are seeking the entire West Bank, captured in 1967, as the heart of a future state, with East Jerusalem as its capital. The international community considers settlements in both areas illegal.
At Netanyahu’s insistence, Trump withdrew the US from an Obama-era deal between world powers and Iran over its nuclear program and increased sanctions against Iran, while a top Iranian general was also assassinated.
And in the final days of his presidency, Trump mediated a series of diplomatic deals between Israel and Arab countries, breaking a long-standing assumption that Arab countries would not normalize ties without progress on Palestinian statehood. The accords marked a major foreign policy achievement for Netanyahu.
Probably at the top of Netanyahu’s wish list this time is that Trump will take tough action against Iran, or perhaps even provide Israel with the weapons it needs for an effective attack on Iran’s nuclear program. Netanyahu will also want to see progress on normalization with Saudi Arabia, but in return he will try to minimize Israeli concessions to the Palestinians. And he will likely expect Trump to give Israel a free hand in Gaza and not press for troop withdrawals, even under a ceasefire deal.
In the weeks since Trump’s re-election, Netanyahu and his allies have expressed hope that good times will return after strained relations with the Biden administration.
“The belief for now is that Trump will deliver,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser. He said Netanyahu’s appointment of a hardline advocate as ambassador to Washington was a sign of the Israeli leader’s confidence in the future under Trump.
Netanyahu could certainly use the boost, especially after seeing his popularity plummet following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks.
Despite significant battlefield gains against Hamas, including the death of its leader in October, and the recent ceasefire that ended nearly fourteen months of fighting with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, opinion polls have repeatedly predicted that the governing coalition of Netanyahu will fall far short of the required level. majority to remain in power if new elections are held now.
Netanyahu will also testify in his long-running corruption trial this month, paving the way for a spectacle that could attract unwanted attention. And the International Criminal Court’s order, which could complicate his travel to dozens of countries around the world, is another blow to the Israeli leader. Some of Netanyahu’s aides have also been embroiled in a series of scandals sensitive war documents leaked or falsified.
But there are no guarantees that Netanyahu will get what he wants from Trump.
For starters, it’s not clear if their relationship is as strong as it used to be. Netanyahu upset Trump as he congratulated President Joe Biden on his 2020 victory, despite Trump’s claims that the election was stolen from him. Although Netanyahu visited Trump in Florida Earlier this year, it is not clear whether Trump will harbor a grudge once he returns to power.
Trump too returns to the White House with a Middle East ravaged by conflictpotentially disrupting their alignment.
Although the ceasefire with Hezbollah appears to be holding, Israel still remains so fighting in Gaza Fourteen months after the Hamas attack that sparked the war. Trump has indicated he wants Israel to finalize matters over the war-torn Palestinian enclave, but has not said what that might entail. He has demanded that Israeli hostages held in Gaza be released before he is sworn in in January, warning that if they are not released, there will be “HELL TO PAY.” without elaborating.
It is far from clear whether Netanyahu’s post-war vision for Gaza – which includes an open military presence in the area – is acceptable to Trump.
Trump may also have bigger plans for the region. He has spoken in the past about normalizing ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the richest and most influential Arab country. His first-term peace plan, while heavily in favor of Israel, nevertheless called for the creation of a Palestinian state, albeit a much smaller one than what the Palestinians are seeking.
Progress on any of these tracks would require Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians.
Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said there will be no normalization with Israel without a clear path to Palestinian independence — an idea Netanyahu and his hardline ruling partners reject. Even if Netanyahu passes, his government would almost certainly collapse.
“Netanyahu is confident that he will be able to recruit Trump to his goals, as has happened in the past. However, the US president-elect has, as usual, sent messages that are difficult to decipher since the victory on November 5,” wrote Amos Harel, commentator at the liberal daily Haaretz.
Trump’s strategy towards Iran is also murky. Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US-Israel relations at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University, said Netanyahu expects Trump to once again apply “maximum pressure” on Tehran to rein in its nuclear program, but he could give negotiations a chance in a second term. securing a legacy as a peacemaker.
Trump’s possible positions on any of these issues could force Netanyahu to take sides, putting him at odds with the parties that hold the key to his political survival.
“Netanyahu has described Trump as Israel’s greatest friend in the White House. And when Trump asks something of him, he can’t say no,” Gilboa said. “All kinds of problems can arise here.”