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Donald Trump’s voters are getting younger, an exclusive new poll shows, showing a majority of those over 40 support him over Joe Biden, 15 years younger than the crossover point at the last election.
The analysis provides the latest evidence of a realignment in the voting population. And the latest bad news for Biden’s re-election campaign.
It comes after a strong showing of polls suggested that Trump, 77, is gaining ground among young voters, long reserved for Democratic candidates. At the same time, the 81-year-old Biden’s appeal is waning, partly because of his age and partly because of opposition to his support for Israel in Gaza.
To test the impact of age and whether the adage that liberals become conservative as they get older, tied to mortgages, tax bills and kids in college still holds true, polling firm JL Partners asked 1,000 voters at the beginning of the month to rate their voice. intentions. It then used a complex modeling system (known as a multinomial logistic regression model) to map out where the intersection is.
The results indicated the age of 40 years. Among them, voters are more likely to choose Biden; above that, the majority chooses Trump. At age 18, about 53 percent support Biden. Around the age of 60, the numbers are reversed: 53 percent support Trump. Of course, gender, race, education level, and other factors all have an impact.
The data shows that the crossover age for women is 71, indicating that Trump continues to struggle to win over female voters. Callum Hunter, a data scientist at JL Partners, said the numbers should worry the Biden campaign. “This new analysis suggests that Biden has lost the majority of voters over the age of 40. “A huge setback for a party whose support is mainly found among America’s younger voters,” he said. However, Trump is still struggling to attract women to his cause. Currently, only women over 71 are more likely to vote for Trump than for Biden – a potential source of trouble for Trump later in the campaign.”
For now, Biden is supported by college graduates, he added. “These voters represent a small island of calm for Biden in a tumultuous sea of shifting voting blocs,” Hunter said. Independents under 70 lean toward Trump, with the Republican-Democrat gap among this group at 9 points or less. “If Biden wants to win in November, he must gain favor with this important target group.”
Trump maintains a narrow lead over Biden in national voting intention polls. JL Partners’ most recent survey for DailyMail.com gave him a four-point lead, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.
Since then, other polls have suggested Biden may have closed the gap as he crisscrosses swing states with campaign visits, while Trump spends four days a week in court for the first of his four criminal cases.
A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday again showed steady improvement in Biden’s overall job performance rating. It now stands at 42 percent, marking a solid gain from December, when it hit a low of 34 percent.
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