Trump loses nine points among New Hampshire’s Republicans as the field widens, but in a head-to-head game he still leads Ron DeSantis 50 percent to 33 in the DailyMail.com 2024 primary poll
Former President Donald Trump is still the clear leader in a new DailyMail.com poll of Republicans in New Hampshire, but growing support for Tim Scott and Chris Christie has eaten away at his double-digit lead on the field.
And the results mean even more bad news for Ron DeSantis’ failed campaign.
While it remains in second place, it’s down from 18 percent in April to 15 percent now, according to the JL Partners poll.
Overall, the survey of 591 registered Republicans and others planning to call for a primary vote shows Trump’s support at 42 percent, up from 51 percent in April.
Scott and Christie, who are betting his entire campaign on a strong showing in the Granite State, have seen their share of the vote increase since entering the race.
Our new poll shows the state of the New Hampshire Republican primary. The two leading candidates have seen their support share dwindle as others gain momentum
The battle for the Republican nomination is currently a race between Trump and DeSantis. But both have seen rivals eat into their numbers among New Hampshire’s primary voters
The former New Jersey governor has moved up to eight percent (from two percent) tied with the South Carolina senator.
James Johnson, founder of JL Partners, said the increasingly crowded field had helped Trump.
‘The new kids on the block are on the rise. That’s the story of our latest New Hampshire poll showing Chris Christie and Tim Scott increasing their following at the expense of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.
But despite Trump’s vote share taking a hit, it’s the former president who benefits the most. The more varied the field, the more likely he is to win the nomination. Trump remains the hot favorite for the New Hampshire primary.”
It means Trump’s lead on the field has fallen six points since April. He also slips up in one-on-one matchups.
His lead over DeSantis drops by three points. In April, he led with 53 points to 33 points. Now it is 50 points to 33.
But it means DeSantis has made no headway since his campaign launched, though there’s still a long way to go before the likely January primary date.
Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St Anselm College, said Trump’s challengers needed to do more.
Voters saw Trump as the incumbent, he said, making it essential that other candidates contrast with the frontrunner
Trump has seen his lead over DeSantis slip in a head-to-head contest
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have seen their share of the vote increase, but are still in single digits
“I think New Hampshire voters are looking for someone who can tell them why they shouldn’t vote for Donald Trump because they know who he is and he’s accomplished for them in many ways,” he said.
And they still support him. So why wouldn’t they vote for him?’
If runners don’t create such a contrast to a candidate poll with over 40 percent, he added, “it’s not a successful campaign.”
The dilemma facing Trump’s opponents: how to challenge him without alienating his powerful base.
Debbie Hart, 65, is part of that base. She was at an event at St Anselm College on Thursday to hear fifth-placed Vivek Ramaswamy speak.
She said she wanted to hear from all candidates, but wasn’t sure if there was anything that might stop her from choosing Trump.
“Just because he’s a fighter and stands up for what’s right and I really think he’ll be effective as long as nobody cheats,” she said.
Ramaswamy made his 150th grassroots appearance at St Anselm College on Thursday
A poll for DailyMail.com last month showed that DeSantis would have a better chance of beating President Joe Biden than Trump
Ninety minutes later, after hearing Ramaswamy’s populist attack on what he calls the “administrative state,” Hart had something to add.
“I do have a tipping point,” she said of her support for Trump. “He already lost to Biden once.”
The study for DailyMail.com was conducted from July 13 to July 20 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
Other results show how the war in Ukraine could be a factor in the decision.
It turned out that 49 percent of voters said they wanted to end US aid to Ukraine. And of those, about 32 percent said they wanted to reduce it a lot.
Republicans also had a dim view of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was hailed as a hero in much of the world.
Only 13 percent said they had a ‘very favorable’ impression of the Ukrainian leader,