Trump leads Kamala Harris in three crucial swing states where voters say life was better under former president
New polls show Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in three crucial states where both candidates are campaigning hard as the race for the White House enters the final stretch.
A New York Times/Siena College poll shows the former president strong in the Sun Belt, where he holds a significant lead over the vice president in Arizona. He also scores better among likely voters in Georgia and North Carolina.
Respondents said Trump improved their lives when he was president and they fear a Harris administration would not do so.
In Arizona, a state where Trump lost to President Biden by just over 10,000 votes in 2020, Trump is ahead by 5 percentage points (50 percent) compared to 45 percent for Harris, according to the poll.
In Georgia, another state where the Republican presidential candidate lost by fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020, Trump holds a 49 percent lead, compared to Harris’s 45 percent.
In North Carolina, where Trump won by just 75,000 votes in 2020, the race is particularly close, with the former president polling at 49 percent of the vote, compared to 47 percent for Harris.
New polls show Trump ahead of Harris in three key states
The polls show how close the presidential election really is. It will likely be decided by just seven states, where a few thousand votes could make a huge difference in who determines the course of the country for the next four years.
The Sun Belt poll follows other recent polls showing Harris ahead in other key states, including the crucial state of Pennsylvania, where the New York Times/Siena College gave her a four-point lead.
The battle for the White House and the road to 270 electoral votes runs directly through the Keystone States, Georgia and North Carolina.
The most important issue the poll found for likely voters in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina was the economy. It was the most important issue in all three swing states. Fifty-five percent of respondents said Trump would do a better job, while 42 percent said Harris would.
Abortion and immigration tied for second place among the most important election issues in these three states.
Poll of likely voters conducted September 17-21
According to the poll released Monday, Trump has a double-digit lead among men in Arizona and also a lead among older voters. Harris has a much smaller lead among women but strong support among younger and college-educated likely voters.
Harris also leads Trump among Hispanic voters in the state, but only by eight points. Another 10 percent say they are undecided.
In Arizona, too, there are signs of a split in the vote. Even with Trump in the lead, Democrat Ruben Gallego is polling much better than Kari Lake in the race for state Senate.
With the race in Arizona expected to be close, the vice president will travel to the state on Friday to campaign.
Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign in Georgia on Friday, September 20. She will travel to Arizona on Friday, as polls show Trump leading in both states.
Meanwhile, Trump leads among men in Georgia by 17 points, the polls show. Harris has an eight-point lead among women. Harris also has just a six-point lead among likely voters 18 to 29.
Trump also holds a 45 percent lead among white voters in the state, while Harris holds an 82 percent lead among black voters, compared to Trump’s 11 percent.
North Carolina is a state that Democrats see as a potential flip in November, after Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020. The last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election was President Obama in 2008.
In North Carolina, Trump also has a twofold lead among men, while Harris has an eight-point lead among women. Trump has a 24-point lead among white voters, narrower than the gap in Georgia.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein also has a two-fold lead over embattled Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who is embroiled in a scandal after it came to light that he once called himself a “black Nazi.”
Donald Trump campaigns in Wilmington, NC on Saturday, September 21, as the NYT/Siena poll shows him in a neck-and-neck race there. He returns to the state on Wednesday
Trump’s lead in the Sun Belt states comes despite the fact that 50 percent of likely voters say they have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of the former president.
At the same time, 52 percent of respondents said they had a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Harris.
Among respondents who were undecided, the biggest concern about Trump was his personality and behavior, with 34 percent saying this was their biggest concern.
For Harris, the biggest concern among undecided or unpersuadable voters was much more mixed: Sixteen percent said it was about her personality, judgment, attitude and skills.