Trump leads GOP rightward march and other takeaways from the Iowa caucuses
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party has been evident since the day he announced he would run for the White House again fourteen months ago. This can be seen in the party’s ideological shift moving even further to the right on cultural issues and especially on immigration policy.
Republicans in Iowa clearly reflected that on Monday night, handing the former president an emphatic victory. They have channeled his anger and his view that basically everything President Joe Biden has done has been a “disaster.” About 9 in 10 voters said they want unrest or substantial change in the way the government operates, according to AP Vote Cast, a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to participate in the caucuses.
However, as clear as its victory was, Iowa has not played the role of kingmaker in the Republican nomination process. New Hampshire voters aren’t getting their cues from Iowa.
Here are some key insights:
This was the least exciting Iowa caucus in modern memory, because Trump essentially ran as the sitting president. He has convinced many Republicans that he did not actually lose the 2020 election to Biden, repeatedly making false claims, and that he has dominated the race like someone still in office.
He traveled to the state sparingly and held a modest number of meetings. He rejected candidate debates. He chose to appear as a defendant at court hearings in his lawsuits in New York and Washington rather than speak to Iowa voters in the final days before the vote.
The former president, who remains the party’s dominant favorite, clearly wants to advance to the general election as quickly as possible. But Iowa sifts the field more than it determines the winner.
Inevitable can be a dangerous word, especially in New Hampshire, where the primaries are eight days away.
New Hampshire has famously caused unrest in both parties. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley joked that New Hampshire is “correcting” Iowa. Bush felt New Hampshire’s pain in 2000 when Senator John McCain defeated him. So did former Vice President Walter Mondale when Senator Gary Hart of Colorado made a splash in the Democratic race in 1984.
With its more moderate, well-educated electorate, New Hampshire may offer Trump’s rivals the best chance to slow his advance. Haley hopes for a win there or at least a very strong performance, and then comes a strange political lull – with the next major competitive race in South Carolina on February 24.
But a lot can happen in that time. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments on February 8 in a case challenging whether a constitutional clause banning those “engaged in insurrection” from holding office applies to Trump. The Supreme Court could also weigh in on whether presidential immunity protects Trump from federal charges over efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss.
The criminal trial in the case will begin on March 5 – Super Tuesday – when 14 states vote in the presidential nomination process. Trump’s strength among Republican voters is indisputable, but the road is long and may be bumpy.
Iowans had something on their minds, but it wasn’t jobs, taxes or business regulations.
About 4 in 10 caucusgoers said immigration was their biggest issue, compared to 1 in 3 who chose the economy, according to VoteCast. Other priorities such as foreign policy, energy and abortion ranked even lower.
About two-thirds of caucusgoers said they felt their finances remained stable or improved. But voters still want big changes: Three in 10 want a total overhaul in the way the federal government functions, while another six in 10 want substantial changes. Additionally, Trump faces multiple criminal charges; 6 in 10 caucusgoers do not trust the American legal system.
It provides a portrait of a segment of the electorate eager to challenge the fundamental democratic institutions in the US