Trump and Harris tied in Pennsylvania: Daily Mail poll finds dead heat in state likely to decide 2024 election
If it wasn’t already clear, our latest poll from the crucial state of Pennsylvania explains in the starkest terms how the presidential election will go down to the wire.
It shows that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a dead heat.
If the election were held tomorrow, they would all win 47 percent of the vote in a state that holds the keys to the White House, according to our latest poll from DailyMail.com/JL Partners.
The state is likely to be the turning point in the elections. The 19 electoral college votes could push one or the other candidate past the threshold for victory on November 5.
Of all the seven major battlefields, this is the most consistent.
JL Partners surveyed 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania about their voting intentions from October 5 to 8 using a variety of methods. The results have a margin of error of 3.5 percent
Both parties pump money and people into the state and leave nothing to chance.
Trump held rallies in Scranton (once Joe Biden’s hometown) and Reading on Wednesday.
“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” he told supporters.
Harris deployed one of her best weapons, in the form of Barack Obama, a day later in Pittsburgh.
And both campaigns spend more on advertising here than in any other state.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said: “Taken together with everything we know, we could be poised for one of the closest elections ever – on par with the 2000 Bush-Gore election.
“Usually in polls like this we can detect whether a candidate has an advantage beneath the surface, but even here it’s hard to predict: both parties are doing well, from Trump’s performance with independents on this issue, to Harris ‘ better targeting the voters who need them.
“Now that 96 percent of likely voters in the state have decided, whoever can deliver the most to their voters is whoever has the best chance.
“It really is all to play for in the Keystone State.”
The results show that Harris dominates among women, while Trump is far ahead among men
Trump was in Scranton, Joe Biden’s hometown, including Pennsylvania, last week. “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” he told supporters
To test voting intentions, JL Partners surveyed 800 likely voters in the state using a variety of methods including landlines, mobile phones and in-app questionnaires.
The results show that the race couldn’t be more exciting.
Trump and JD Vance have 47 percent support. And Harris and Tim Walz also receive 47 percent support.
The other names on the ballot (a Libertarian ticket of Chase Oliver and Mike ter Matt and a green ticket of Jill Stein and Rudolph Ware) each receive only one point.
Trump won the state in 2016 by fewer than 70,000 votes. Four years later he lost it by slightly more.
With everything so tight, the Republican and Democratic campaigns want to leave everything on the field.
The latest data from AdImpact, which tracks ad spending, shows how campaigns in the state are spending more per electoral college vote than anywhere else.
Harris during an event hosted by The Economic Club of Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon University
Harris/Walz signs in Indiana, Pennsylvania, ahead of a Trump visit last month
In Pennsylvania, the amount so far is $13.5 million for each of the state’s 19 votes. The next closest is Michigan at $12.4 million.
The two sides are expected to pour $350 million into television advertising in Pennsylvania — more than will be spent in the Midwestern battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin combined.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk is expected to make more appearances in the Trump-supporting state. He joined the former president last weekend as Trump returned to the scene of an assassination attempt.
What makes the battle so intriguing is the way the state acts as a microcosm of the entire election.
Trump’s path to victory lies in driving out supporters in working-class cities and rural areas, while Harris must win the vote in big cities, where the population is more diverse.
Harris is due to be in Erie on Monday, where she will make her tenth visit to the state since replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee.