Transitioning to sustainable food systems could generate $10 trillion a year, according to the study

A shift to a more sustainable global food system could deliver up to $10 trillion in benefits per year, improve human health and alleviate the climate crisis, according to the most comprehensive economic study of its kind.

It found that existing food systems were destroying more value than they created due to hidden environmental and medical costs, essentially borrowing from the future to make profits today.

Food systems are responsible for a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, putting the world on track for 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. This creates a vicious circle, as higher temperatures cause more extreme weather and greater damage to crops.

Food insecurity also places a burden on medical systems. The study predicted that under a business-as-usual approach, 640 million people would be underweight by 2050, while obesity would increase by 70%.

Reorienting the food system would be a political challenge but deliver enormous economic and welfare benefits, according to the international team of authors behind the study, which aims to be the food equivalent of the Stern review, the 2006 investigation into the costs of climate change.

Johan Rockström, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the authors of the study, said: “The global food system holds the future of humanity on Earth in its hands.”

The study proposes a shift in subsidies and tax breaks away from destructive large-scale monocultures that rely on fertilizers, pesticides and forest clearing. Instead, financial incentives should be targeted at small farmers who can turn their farms into carbon sinks with more space for wildlife.

A change in diet is another key element, along with investments in technologies to improve efficiency and reduce emissions.

With less food insecurity, the report says, malnutrition could be eradicated by 2050, with 174 million fewer premature deaths and 400 million agricultural workers able to earn a sufficient income. The proposed transition would help limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and halve nitrogen runoff from agriculture.

Overall, they estimate the cost of the transformation at between 0.2% and 0.4% of global GDP per year.

In early research, Rockström and his colleagues found that food was the largest sector of the economy to cross planetary boundaries. In addition to its climate impacts, it is a major driver of land use change and biodiversity decline, and is responsible for 70% of freshwater withdrawals.

The report was prepared by the Food System Economics Commission, formed by the Potsdam Institute, the Food and Land Use Coalition and EAT, a holistic food system coalition of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, the Wellcome Trust and the Strawberry Foundation. Academic partners include the University of Oxford and the London School of Economics.

It estimated the hidden costs of food, including climate change, human health, nutrition and natural resources $15 trillion, and created a new model to project how these hidden costs might evolve over time depending on humanity’s capacity to change. Their calculations were consistent with a report last year from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization that estimated off-books agri-food costs. of more than $10 trillion worldwide in 2020.

Dr. Steven Lord, from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute, said in a statement: “This analysis provides an initial assessment of the regional and global economic opportunities in transforming food systems. While not easy, the transformation is affordable on a global scale and the rising costs of inaction in the future pose a significant economic risk.”

Numerous other studies have shown the health and climate benefits of a shift to a plant-based diet. a report last year by the Climate Observatory notes that Brazil’s beef industry – and associated deforestation – now has a larger carbon footprint than all the cars, factories, air conditioners, electrical appliances and other emissions sources in Japan.

The new study makes no prescriptions for vegetarianism, but Rockström said demand for beef and most other meats would fall if hidden health and environmental costs were included in the price.

Nicholas Stern, chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, welcomed the research: “The economics of the current food system are unfortunately broken beyond repair. The so-called ‘hidden costs’ damage our health and degrade our planet, while also exacerbating global inequality. Changing the ways we produce and consume food will be critical to tackling climate change, protecting biodiversity and building a better future. It is time for radical change.”

The main challenge of the proposed food transition is that food costs will rise. Rockström said this must be addressed with political dexterity and support for poor parts of society, otherwise the result could be protests such as the yellow vests (yellow vest) demonstrations in France due to increases in petrol prices.

Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, emphasized the forward-looking nature of the report: “This research… proves that a different reality is possible, and shows us what it will take to change the food system. to a net carbon storage by 2040. This opportunity should attract the attention of every policymaker seeking to secure a healthier future for the planet and for people.”