Top pollster Nate Silver has released his long-awaited final prediction of the 2024 election times before polls close in the US
And he says it’s “literally closer than a coin flip” as what could be the closest election in American history comes to a close on Tuesday.
After 80,000 model simulations, Silver Democrat Kamala Harris has defeated Donald Trump in the most matchups.
“The race is literally closer than a tail: empirically, heads win 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’ 50.015 percent,” Silver said Tuesday morning.
According to his model, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015% of simulations, compared to Trump’s 49.985%. That equates to Harris winning 40,012 simulations, while Trump won 39,718.
“When I say the odds are about as close to 50/50 as you can get, I’m not exaggerating,” Silver continued.
Trump will watch the Election Day results from his home in Florida
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He went on to say that he has never seen “anything like this” in all his years of predicting elections, including five presidential elections and nine general elections.
The outlying races were Electoral College ties 269 – 269 that ultimately resulted in Trump victories due to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives’ involvement in the process in this particular scenario.
The nail-biting race is one of the tightest in history and will likely be decided by a few thousand votes in several swing states, according to the pollsters’ final forecast.
Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan will all be closely watched today as votes trickle in.
These states are the crucial swing states that will ultimately determine the outcome.
The analysis found that on November 5, Harris led Trump in the national polling averages by just one point, up from 48.6% to 47.6%.
It also shows the Republican ahead in all critical swing states except Michigan, where he trails by 1.2 points, and Wisconsin, where he trails by one point.
Nate Silver speaks at the ‘On The Fault Lines: Decision 2018’ midterm election panel on October 25, 2018 in New York City
A Trump supporter holds a sign on Election Day
This is consistent with the final predictions of the major election models.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a 1.2-point lead on Election Day.
RealClearPolitics’ presidential vote average, meanwhile, has Harris up just a tenth of a percentage point, giving him 48.7% to Trump’s 48.6%.
One survey presented data that could rattle Republicans heading into Election Day.
Kamala Harris has halved Donald Trump’s double digits among male voters to single digits, a latest Marist poll showed.
Voter analysis has long shown that there is a gender gap: women support Harris and men support Trump. Harris having to make up ground with the male vote would be a troubling sign for the former president.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at the Talking Stick Resort Amphitheater, Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024, in Phoenix
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A Nevada resident wears an “I Voted” sticker after leaving the polls
Voters line up to cast their ballots at Allegiant Stadium on November 5, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Americans cast their votes today in the presidential race between Republican candidate President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as multiple state elections
In early October, Trump had a 16-point lead among men — 57% to Harris’ 41%, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll.
Now Harris has whittled that down to just four points: She has 47% to Trump’s 51%, according to the latest numbers released Monday.
However, the betting markets show favorable odds for Trump.
On the prediction site Predictit, he overtook Kamala Harris last night and rose this morning. The site now gives Trump a 10 percent lead when it comes to his chances of winning the election.
It mirrors a similar move on other betting sites like Polymarket, where Republican had a similar 10-point increase.