TOBIAS ELLWOOD: We MUST thwart China and Russia’s mission to splinter our world into two

Consider if it were the other way around and a US balloon had entered Chinese airspace. The Beijing regime would not have hesitated to bring him down.

But for too long, the United States faltered. And with the West preoccupied with helping Ukraine, the diplomatic standoff between Washington and Beijing comes at a time when there is significantly more choreography between the leaders of China and Russia.

Those two countries are fully aware that, after having enjoyed decades of relative peace, the West has become complacent and has lost its appetite for defending fledgling democracies such as those of Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya and Yemen.

Again, it is no coincidence that, prior to the invasion of Ukraine nearly a year ago, Russia began its military development shortly after the US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Together, China and Russia are not only pioneering a more authoritarian approach to governance, but are also encouraging other countries to follow suit, as they hope to see not just the United States but the entire West weakened.

China’s ballooning over Montana should spark another pivotal moment in history: the realization that a Sino-Russian axis seems increasingly likely, and that we in the West are unprepared for the geostrategic threats looming in the next decade. . us.

The incident reminds me of what happened in October 1957, when millions of Americans looked to the sky in unprecedented panic after the Soviet Union launched the world’s first satellite.

It circled the globe every 98 minutes and was supposed to look down for sinister purposes.

While Vladimir Putin poses the greatest single threat to European security by leveraging Russia’s ability to withstand hardship and prolong the Ukraine conflict, Chinese President Xi poses a greater geopolitical challenge by competing with the United States for dominance. global economic and technological Since he took office in 2013, he has expanded China’s military force to the world’s largest and used Covid as an excuse to build the most advanced national surveillance system.

He is now beginning to flex his muscles. China has taken clumps of rocks deep in international waters south of neighboring Taiwan and turned them into military strongholds. All illegal under international maritime law, but unencumbered by the West.

This is not the time for strategic ambiguity. We need a clear plan to control the destabilizing agendas of Russia and China. We must accept that they are on a mission to see our world split into two dangerously competing spheres of influence.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken could cancel a balloon trip to China. But we urgently need to craft a strategy that influences Beijing’s behaviour, rather than one that provokes a reaction every time Xi goes further.

Without a consistent approach, the risk of a sudden escalation is becoming more likely.

TOBIAS ELLWOOD: Together, China and Russia are not only openly promoting a more authoritarian approach to governance, but also encouraging other countries to follow suit.

TOBIAS ELLWOOD: China’s ballooning over Montana should spark another pivotal moment in history: the realization that a Sino-Russian axis seems increasingly likely.

Of course, all of this also raises difficult questions for the UK. We helped design the post-war security architecture, much of which still works today.

Our actions earned us a permanent seat on the UN Security Council created in 1945. Nearly eight decades later, the world has changed. Can we still look in the mirror and say we deserve this seat? And we still want it?

If the answer is ‘Yes’, which our actions in Ukraine suggest, we urgently need to update our foreign policy, defense posture and international statecraft not only to justify our place at the table, but to anticipate what is to come. looming

It may have just been a weather balloon, but the storms it forecast are not so easily dismissed.