Time is running out to curb climate change: The window to avoid 1.5C of warming will CLOSE before 2030 if emissions continue at current rate, study warns

The chance to stop global warming more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels could be lost in just six years, a new study shows.

The “carbon budget” is the maximum amount of carbon dioxide we could emit that would allow the planet to stay within the 1.5°C temperature limit.

Scientists estimate that humanity can only emit about an additional 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide before there is a 50 percent chance of global temperature rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius.

At current rates, this will be emitted by 2029.

Right now, humanity emits about 40 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year, so by 2029 a lot more will be produced.

Current estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations body that is the world’s foremost authority on climate science, indicate that the Earth is on track to warm by 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 as emissions continue to increase. global in 2023.

Scientists have said that a temperature increase of 3 degrees Celsius would be catastrophic for humans and other life forms on Earth, and some have warned that exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius limit could lead to tipping points such as the melting of polar glaciers, which could cause the planet to warm independently of emissions. Humanity.

The Earth’s temperature has already risen by 1.1°C since pre-industrial levels.

Dr Robin Lambole, from the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London and lead author of the study, said: “Our findings confirm what we already know – we are not doing nearly enough to keep temperature rise below 1.5°C.”

“The remaining budget is now so small that small changes in our understanding of the world could lead to large proportionate changes in the budget. However, estimates show less than a decade of emissions at current levels.”

“The lack of progress on reducing emissions means we can be more certain than ever that the window for keeping temperatures rising to safe levels is closing quickly.”

There was a lot of uncertainty in judging how much the world could emit before breaching the target, as there are many greenhouse gases as well as the indirect effects of other pollutants such as cooling aerosols.

The study’s authors said they used a new dataset and an improved climate model to give a more accurate estimate of the remaining budget.

Although the global average temperature is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2023 and be the hottest year on record, this does not mean that the Paris target is dead, as meteorologists measure the average number taken over the course of Many years in order to take into account the natural fluctuation in temperature. Temperature.

Many countries have targets in place to reach net zero by around the middle of this century, meaning that the amount of emissions released into the atmosphere equals those removed either by nature or technology.

Restored forests, wetlands and oceans may begin to pull more carbon from the atmosphere than they emit, cooling the Earth’s temperature, although the exact effect is still largely an educated guess.

“At this point, our best guess is that the opposing warming and cooling will almost cancel each other out after we reach net zero,” Dr Lambole said.

“However, only when we reduce emissions and get closer to net zero will we be able to see what heating and cooling modifications will look like over the long term.

“Every bit of warming will make life more difficult for people and ecosystems. This study is another warning from the scientific community. Now it is up to governments to act.”

“The current study shows one thing above all: a 1.5 degree cap would be too stringent,” said Professor Niklas Hone, Director and CEO of the New Climate Institute in Cologne. “It almost does not matter whether the budget is exhausted within six years – as this suggests.” study – or within ten years, as previously thought, if emissions remain the same. It’s too narrow either way. This is not a new finding.

But this does not mean in any way that we should give up, quite the opposite. It shows that every ton of CO2 saved matters more because the budget is so limited.

Even if the multi-year average temperature increase exceeds 1.5 degrees, it would be a good idea to save as many emissions as possible in advance, because every ton saved results in a smaller increase in global temperatures and therefore less damage.