Thinking of buying a new GPU? It might be a good idea to move fast as demand for graphics cards is spiking
Sales of graphics cards are showing signs of recovery after a prolonged slump, and desktop models in particular are disappearing from the shelves a lot faster.
The new GPU sales data comes from analyst firm Jon Peddie Research (JPR), which shows that for the third quarter of 2023, total graphics card shipments are up quite a bit compared to the previous quarter: 71.9 million units, an increase of almost 17 million units. %. This applies to all graphics cards, desktop and laptop models (including integrated graphics).
However, the real story, as we know, is a comparison to the same quarter of the previous year, and in that case total shipments fell 5.1% year-over-year.
However, that is seen in a positive light as JPR notes that this is the βlowest annualized decline in half a decadeβ β but it is clearly still a decline.
What's interesting, though, is that desktop graphics cards are showing stronger signs of progress. JPR provides a separate figure for the growth of these boards, and they are up much more than last quarter at 37.4% (more than double the growth of the overall GPU market).
Analysis: concerns about prices
What we're not told are the shipping numbers, or the ratios, of desktop graphics cards with these numbers, but in some ways that doesn't matter. Since the level of growth is so much higher than that of the overall market (discrete, laptop and integrated GPUs, mainly in notebooks themselves of course), this is a clear indication that desktop boards are suddenly moving quite quickly.
Why is that important to the consumer? If this demand continues, we may see rising prices.
Before you panic, we don't foresee any major price increases. That seems unlikely, and JPR president Jon Peddie is at pains to caution against reading too much into this increase in total shipments and interpreting the numbers as a sign that the GPU market is in some sort of complete turnaround.
Peddie warns of the 'over-enthusiastic forecasters' we've seen in the past, that observation: βThis rebound is no different and is overvalued, while it is largely a reflection of the cleaning up and tidying up of the distribution channel. Over the past three quarters, add-in boards have been sold, not in normal volumes, and albeit with complaints about prices, but still sold. The mistake is the constant search for sensationalism. It is tiring.”
This is clear, and indeed we have to put into perspective that the overall figure for the third quarter is still a decline, but not for desktop graphics cards. The difference between the overall increase of 17% (quarter-on-quarter) and 37% is surprisingly pronounced, and at least suggests that there is a reasonable prospect that prices will not fall further, even if they do not. to go upstairs. But if the latter happens, you will of course be happy that you bought now instead of waiting.
Finally, this news comes with somewhat inconvenient timing, as Nvidia will likely decide the final configuration and price of the upcoming Lovelace GPU refreshes, which should be unveiled at CES 2024 in a month's time if the rumors are true.
Perhaps Team Green might feel emboldened to move toward the higher end of the price spectrum it's considering for the likes of the RTX 4080 Super and 4070 Super (or whatever updated models eventually appear).
Of course, if you're considering a graphics card in that area, rather than buying now, the sensible tactic is to wait and see where these updated mid- to high-end boards will place price-wise. .
Through Tom's hardware