These six House races are ones to watch in this year’s election
WASHINGTON — There is a lot of investment in the few truly competitive congressional elections expected to determine the balance of power in Washington next year.
Democrats need to gain just four seats to regain control of the House, while Republicans hope to expand their majority and make it easier to get priorities across the finish line, something they have struggled to do in a divided government.
While the most hotly contested House elections typically involve new incumbents still building their name recognition, there are a few old veterans of Congress also face competition from demographic shifts in their districts.
Overall, control of the House will likely come down to the 16 Republican-held districts that Democratic President Joe Biden won in 2020 and the five Democratic-held districts that Republicans won. Donald Trump won. Such districts are rich targets for both parties.
Below are six of these toss-up races to watch this fall.
National Republicans have previously tried to unseat three-term incumbent Democrat Jared Golden. This time, they believe they have found the right candidate in Republican Austin Theriault, a state legislator and former NASCAR driver.
Nearly $16 million in political advertising has been earmarked for the district, which Trump has won twice. That’s a lot of ad buys in a relatively cheap market. Planned spending is about evenly split between Republican and Democratic groups, according to AdImpact, which tracks media buying. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., visited the district this month and stressed the importance of the race.
Golden, a Marine Corps veteran, has worked against Biden’s administration on some votes, most notably as the only Democrat to vote against Biden’s COVID relief bill in March 2021.
Golden went on to vote for key bills to increase infrastructure spending and expand benefits for veterans exposed to burn pits and other toxic environments, as well as Biden’s flagship health and climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act.
Democrats see Long Island as a golden opportunity to win back congressional seats and regain a majority in the House of Representatives, starting with a race that mirrors the one from two years ago between Republican newcomer Anthony D’Esposito and her Democratic challenger Laura Gillen.
Groups plan to spend nearly $11 million on advertising in this race, with Democrats earmarking nearly $7 million for ads and Republicans nearly $4 million, according to AdImpact.
Gillen also had a cash advantage as of June 30, according to the Federal Election Commission, with $2.5 million to nearly $2.2 million for D’Esposito. It is unusual for the challenger to have more cash on hand than the incumbent president.
D’Esposito is a former New York City police detective who won in 2022 despite Biden carrying his district by about 15 percentage points in 2020. D’Esposito has made public safety a priority of his campaigns, boasting that he has donated millions of federal dollars to help local law enforcement.
Gillen is a former supervisor of the city of Hempstead, the largest city in Nassau County, and has emphasized support for a woman’s right to choose abortion.
Matt Cartwright is used to competing in neck-and-neck races — and winning. The Democrat began his career in Congress in 2013. Judging by the resources being poured into this race, he’s in another dogfight. Democratic groups plan to spend about $13 million on ads, while Republicans plan to spend more than $10 million, according to AdImpact.
His opponent is Republican Rob Bresnahan, who emphasizes his experience as CEO of an electrical installation company and his investment in local communities.
Cartwright represents a northeastern Pennsylvania district that sided with Trump in 2020, even though Biden is originally from Scranton.
Cartwright voted against a sweeping House Republican bill to build a larger border wall and impose new restrictions on asylum seekers. However, he has run ads calling for a vote to deport immigrants who commit crimes, in an effort to dampen Republican criticism of the border.
Republican Representative David Schweikert is used to comfortably winning congressional elections. Not anymore. Schweikert won his suburban Phoenix district by just 3,200 votes in 2022 against a relatively unknown rival who had minimal support from national Democrats.
This time around, the House Majority PAC, which focuses on electing Democrats, plans to spend more than $6 million on ads, compared to about $4.9 million from the main Republican group, the Congressional Leadership Fund.
Schweikert, who is serving his seventh term, is running against Amish Shah, a physician and former Arizona state representative who recently emerged victorious in the crowded Democratic primary.
Republican Rep. John Duarte won by just 564 votes in 2022, in a district Biden won by double digits two years earlier. That makes the Central Valley district an automatic priority for both parties in what will be a rematch from two years ago.
The Democratic challenger is Adam Gray, who served in the California State Assembly for 10 years.
Groups aligned with Democrats plan to spend about $7.6 million on ad buys, while Republicans have earmarked about $6.1 million in airtime, according to AdImpact.
The state’s agricultural region is more conservative than the rest of California. The cost of living and access to water for irrigation are both the biggest challenges and priorities.
Duarte emphasizes his farming roots, growing grapes, almonds and pistachios, and says curbing spending in Washington would reduce inflation. Gray touts the money he has helped deliver to the region from Sacramento for water storage and to repair aging canals.
Democrats are hoping Gray will benefit from a presidential primary that generates more voter turnout than midterm elections that often favor the party that doesn’t control the White House. But Duarte can take comfort in the fact that he won the March primary earlier this year with nearly 55% of the vote, compared to Gray’s 45%. In California, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.
Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is running against Trump-backed Joe Kent in a rematch for a two-year election that the Democrat won by less than 1 percentage point.
Republicans see Gluesenkamp Perez as vulnerable in a district that Trump won by more than 4 percentage points in 2020. Republican groups have earmarked nearly $6 million for political advertising, while Democratic groups plan to spend about $5.3 million.
Gluesenkamp Perez supports abortion access and policies to combat climate change, but is also open about being a gun owner. Meanwhile, Kent says Gluesenkamp Perez is only pretending to be a moderate.
The southern border could be a defining issue in the race. American Action Network, a Republican advocacy group, has run ads in which the incumbent congressman says in March 2023 that “no one loses sleep at night worrying about the southern border.” She went on to make the point that people are kept awake at night worrying about pocketbook issues like the prospect of losing their home or a child dropping out of school.
But the comment has clearly become a source of criticism for Republicans, who accuse Democrats of not doing enough to combat illegal immigration.
Gluesenkamp Perez has emphasized her willingness to work with Republicans on border issues in campaign ads. An ad featuring several local public safety officials end with her saying she has endorsed the message “to do whatever it takes to secure the border and keep Washington safe.”